Hims & Hers names Mike Chi as new COO as Nader Kabbani transitions
The midnight lapse in U.S. government funding has injected fresh volatility into markets, leaving investors to navigate not only political uncertainty but also a looming vacuum in economic data that the Federal Reserve depends on. Futures fell early Wednesday, the US dollar weakened, and gold pushed to another record high as investors sought clarity on how the standoff in Washington might ripple through policy expectations.
Markets were quick to react. Chipmakers and other high-growth tech names led equity declines in premarket trading, adding weight to concerns that the AI-driven surge of recent months has left valuations stretched. Treasury yields edged higher, with the 10-year moving above 4.15% as safe-haven demand was offset by worries over fiscal dysfunction. The dollar, normally a crisis beneficiary, slipped, reflecting how a shutdown undermines U.S. credibility rather than reinforcing it.
The disruption extends well beyond near-term sentiment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed it will halt publication of economic reports during the closure, which means September’s jobs report, long a linchpin for Fed watchers, will likely be delayed.
The absence of data could leave monetary policymakers flying blind just weeks before their next decision, placing unusual weight on private-sector releases such as the ADP employment survey. Economists expect around 45,000 new jobs in September compared with 54,000 in August, a slowdown that would signal a labor market that is cooling but still intact.
A prolonged shutdown would also delay the consumer price index due in mid-October, depriving the Fed of its clearest inflation gauge at a time when officials emphasize a data-dependent approach. The last time Washington faced a drawn-out standoff, in late 2018 and early 2019, the closure stretched to 34 days and created distortions that clouded markets for weeks. That memory still lingers and is adding to today’s unease.
Complicating matters further, the White House’s decision to withdraw its nomination of E.J. Antoni to lead the BLS leaves the agency without a permanent director. While this may appear bureaucratic, the leadership gap raises questions about how quickly reliable data can resume even once the shutdown ends. For traders, the result is another layer of uncertainty.
The consequences touch every asset class. Equities face the dual challenge of political dysfunction and stretched valuations, particularly in technology, where earnings expectations remain lofty. Bonds are being pulled between safe-haven flows and supply concerns linked to widening deficits.
Commodities, with gold at the forefront, are benefiting from investors hedging against fiscal and monetary instability. In currency markets, the dollar’s weakness underscores fears that persistent gridlock could erode confidence in U.S. institutions.
For investors, the message is clear: the shutdown compounds fragilities that were already in place rather than creating them from scratch. Markets were questioning the sustainability of the equity rally and the timing of Fed rate cuts even before this disruption. With the data calendar now in jeopardy, the absence of reliable information becomes a risk in itself, leaving speculation and sentiment to drive trading in place of numbers. That increases vulnerability to sharp swings.
Looking ahead, the bullish case rests on a swift resolution in Congress and evidence that the labor market continues to cool gradually without collapsing. This outcome would preserve hopes of a soft landing and allow equity momentum to continue, even with more volatility.
The bearish case involves a protracted shutdown that blinds policymakers, damages investor confidence, and reignites fears of fiscal instability. In that environment, gold’s record highs could mark the beginning of a sustained climb rather than a temporary spike.
Investors should prepare for heightened uncertainty in the weeks ahead. With Washington gridlock threatening to mute the very data the Fed relies on, markets will be forced to look more closely at technical positioning and global developments until clarity returns. Caution, diversification, and selective exposure will be essential in navigating this unsettled landscape.