Silver at the Crossroads: VC PMI, Gann Cycles, and the September Time Window

Published 15/09/2025, 06:12
Updated 15/09/2025, 09:04

Silver (/SI) is trading at $42.685, consolidating after a volatile week that saw a swing low at $41.08 and a rebound to a high of $43.04. The market is oscillating around the VC PMI Daily ($42.89) and the VC PMI Weekly ($42.31), placing price action inside a neutral but constructive mean-reversion zone. Holding above $42.31 keeps the bias tilted upward, while defending $41.45 (Daily Buy 2) would protect the lower boundary of support.

VC PMI Framework

Silver 5-Day and 15-Min Chart

The daily pivot band defines the tactical roadmap. Below the mean, Buy 1 ($42.14) and Buy 2 ($41.45) provide demand zones. Above, the reversion path targets Sell 1 ($43.28) and Sell 2 ($43.73). On the weekly horizon, the broader consolidation runs from $40.64 (Buy 1) to $43.55 (Sell 1), with Buy 2 ($39.74) and Sell 2 ($44.27) bracketing the extremes.

Cycle Analysis

Silver Futures-15-Min Chart

The 30-day Gann cycle remains dominant, with the vibration window opening mid-September after the August 15 pivot low near $39.50. This cycle projects higher into late September, where right-translation is possible if the market sustains closes above $42.90–$43.00. The 360-day cycle, anchored from the September 28, 2024 pivot, continues to project strength into the anniversary date of September 28, 2025, reinforcing this window as a critical time marker for acceleration or reversal.

Square of 9 Geometry

Mapping recent pivots onto the Square of 9 provides additional alignment. From the $41.08 low, a 90° rotation projects resistance in the $42.90–$43.10 zone, which is precisely where the market is stalling against Daily Sell 1. A 120°–135° turn extends resistance toward $43.70–$44.00, overlapping Weekly Sell 1 and Sell 2. On the downside, 180° symmetry aligns with $40.25–$40.65, echoing the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement and Weekly Buy 1 support.

Momentum & Strategy

The MACD is modestly positive at +0.0379, showing constructive momentum but not yet explosive. The strategy is to buy weakness into the $41.45–$42.14 band with stops under $41.00, targeting a mean reversion back to $43.28–$43.73. A breakout through $43.73 could trigger a test of the weekly extremes at $44.27. Conversely, sustained closes below $42.14 warn of a retest of $40.64 and potentially $39.74 if the cycle fails.

Trading Coach’s Note: Silver is at equilibrium but approaching a critical time/price window. The confluence of the 30-day cycle, the 360-day anniversary, and Square of 9 projections suggests traders should prepare for an expansion of volatility into late September.

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