TSX jumps amid Fed rate cut hopes, ongoing U.S. government shutdown
Silver futures are trading at $41.715, but the recent rally appears fragile as the market presses against a dense resistance cluster between $41.87 (Daily Sell 1) and $42.37 (Weekly Sell 1). This zone, reinforced by Square of 9 resistance at $42.30, has repeatedly capped momentum. The inability to sustain trade above these levels suggests sellers are regaining control. The MACD oscillator, hovering near the zero line with a slightly negative slope, signals waning bullish momentum and the potential for a downside reversal.
From a VC PMI perspective, the fulcrum lies at the Daily/Weekly Pivot ($41.54–$41.47). Sustained closes below this zone would confirm a bearish bias, opening the path toward Daily Buy 1 ($41.30) and Daily Buy 2 ($40.67). The deeper downside risk resides in the Weekly Buy 2 ($39.74) level, which also converges with the Fibonacci 50% retracement ($39.62). This alignment reinforces $39.60–$39.80 as a powerful downside magnet once support levels begin to fail.
Cyclically, the 30-day Gann cycle, anchored from the August 15 low ($39.20), projects a crest into the September 14–16 window. Price action has already traced a rally into resistance, and with time running out on the cycle, the probability of reversal grows stronger. The 360-day annual cycle, anchored from the September 28, 2024 low, still supports a broad bullish trend into Q4, but within this larger framework corrective declines are expected. The next two weeks therefore set the stage for a sharp reversion toward support before the longer-term uptrend can resume.
Square of 9 geometry reinforces the bearish case. The rotations from $39.20 align $41.50 and $42.30 as natural resistance zones, both of which have contained price. On the downside, harmonics at $40.20–$39.70 overlap with weekly VC PMI buy levels, highlighting this area as the likely destination for a mean-reversion move. A decisive close below $40.67 would likely accelerate selling into this target band.
Trading Outlook
- Trigger: Failure to hold above $41.54 pivot.
- Targets: $41.30 → $40.67 → $39.74.
- Cycle Timing: Expect weakness to intensify into the Sept 14–16 reversal window.
- Risk: Only a breakout above $42.37–$43.20 negates the bearish structure.
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TRADING DERIVATIVES, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND PRECIOUS METALS INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.