Wall St futures steady as Dec rate cut bets increase; PCE data awaited
Silver futures have delivered a decisive mean-reversion rally from the Friday low at 48.05, a level that activated the Daily Buy 2 (48.56) signal in direct synchrony with the Weekly Buy 1 (47.89) support band. This convergence of daily and weekly VC PMI buy signals produced a high-probability reversal zone, triggering a powerful rebound that has now carried price back above the Daily VC PMI mean at 50.31 and the Weekly mean at 50.07. This move shifts the immediate bias from a short-term bearish structure into a neutral-to-bullish posture, while still operating beneath a dense band of resistance.
Current trade near 51.40 sits just under the combined resistance cluster of Daily Sell 1 (51.20), Daily Sell 2 (52.16), and Weekly Sell 1 (52.09)—a statistically overbought region under classic VC PMI probability. This area favors profit-taking, hedging, or tactical mean-reversion shorts, rather than initiating new aggressive long exposure. The market’s rejection on the first probe of the 52.00–52.20 band also aligns with the 61.8% retracement of the prior decline, reinforcing this zone as a key structural ceiling.
Cycle structure adds further context. The pivot from 48.00–48.50 appears to mark completion of the prior 30-day downside cycle, inaugurating a new upward 30-day leg that projects into the 12/24 window. This period becomes the next decision point—either forming a lower-degree top or enabling acceleration if silver breaks cleanly above resistance. The 60- and 90-day cycles continue to show transition from the broader September–November correction into an early accumulation phase. These higher-time-frame cycles argue that the current rally, even if volatile, is likely forming the structural base of a larger advance rather than a terminal blow-off.
Failure to close above 52.25 in the coming sessions keeps the market susceptible to mean reversion back toward the Daily mean (50.31) or even Daily Buy 1 (49.39) without disrupting the broader bullish transition. A sustained breakout above 52.25, however, would invalidate immediate mean-reversion shorts and open the path toward 53.10, 53.85, and 54.40 into the late-December 30-day cycle window, where 60- and 90-day cycle alignment allows for a higher-time-frame impulsive extension.
Until that breakout materializes, discipline favors respecting the VC PMI sell levels for tactical shorts, while using corrective pullbacks toward the mean and the 49.40 -- 48.70 zone as the most statistically robust terrain to align with the emerging upward cycle structure.
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TRADING DERIVATIVES, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND PRECIOUS METALS INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.