Gold prices drop amid waning rate cut bets; central bank demand remains
Highlights breakout confirmation potential and upper-range Fibonacci targets.
Price: $48.225 Change: +0.275 (+0.57%) Time Frame: 15-Minute / 5-Day Chart
Silver futures continue to demonstrate resilience, consolidating above the $48.00 level as the market stabilizes within a bullish mean-reversion structure defined by the VC PMI AI. After establishing a weekly low at $46.52, silver rallied to a high of $48.835, forming a critical support base near the weekly pivot mean of $47.83. This equilibrium zone coincides with the daily VC PMI pivot at $48.22, reinforcing a powerful area of confluence that currently guides price action.
The MACD indicator reveals that downside momentum has eased, and the histogram is flattening near the zero line—often a precursor to renewed bullish energy. Momentum buyers have consistently defended the $47.50 – $47.80 band, suggesting accumulation is underway ahead of the next expansion phase.
VC PMI AI Levels
Daily:
- Buy 2: $47.27 Buy 1: $47.72 Pivot: $48.22 Sell 1: $48.65 Sell 2: $49.17
Weekly:
- Buy 2: $45.51 Buy 1: $46.82 Pivot: $47.83 Sell 1: $49.15 Sell 2: $50.15
The tight clustering of the daily and weekly pivots near $48.00 defines a decisive control point for market direction. A sustained close above $48.65 would confirm bullish breakout momentum, opening a path toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $49.59 and the upper Sell 2 zone between $50.15 and $50.58. On the downside, a reversion to the Buy 1 level ($47.72) remains a high-probability accumulation zone within the VC PMI framework.
Cycle Outlook
- 30-Day Cycle: Projects a short-term crest near mid-November around $49.50.
- 60-Day Cycle: Points to continued strength through early December if prices hold above $47.70.
- 90-Day Cycle: Foresees a potential consolidation-breakout range targeting $50 – $52 by January.
- 360-Day Cycle: Remains in a confirmed bullish trajectory, suggesting that the larger mean-reversion cycle could extend gains toward Q2 2026.
These harmonics indicate a synchronized bullish phase that may accelerate into the first quarter of 2026 as long as price remains above the $46.80 weekly support.
Trading Strategy
The bias remains bullish above $47.83. Traders may favor long positions on intraday dips toward $47.27–$47.72 with profit targets between $49.15 and $50.15. A protective stop should remain under $46.82. A decisive close above $49.17 confirms upward continuation toward the 61.8% extension near $50.58.
Disclosure: Trading futures and options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.