Market Optimism Builds on Weak Signals While Smart Money Reduces Risk

Published 12/05/2025, 06:50

What was good for the bullish goose (sentiment extremes in March-April) is going to be good for the bearish gander as well.

US Stock Market Sentiment

Dumb money apparently thinks that now that Trump is making a few sounds about making nicey nice with some trade partners, all’s well again. Dumb money is gulping down stonks even more aggressively now, while Smart money is fading. A degrading contrary-sentiment picture here.

SPX-Sentiment

Sentimentrader.com

A degrading contrary-sentiment picture here!Fear and Greed Index

Here again are the seven components of CNN’s Fear/Greed index. Put/Call ratio is labeled “fear”, but it is heading greedily south quickly. The same can be said of volatility.Fear and GreedFear and GreedJunk Bond Demand

Investment managers spiked with the bull activity in prices, as we knew they would.NAAIM vs S&P 500

Ma & Pa were creeping more toward bullish on May 7.Sentiment Votes-AAII

As noted above, over-bearish sentiment benefit, which was like shooting fish in a barrel back in March-April, is all gone. The stock market needed a shot of hope and relief; it got it, and now it’s on its own and is becoming vulnerable, conveniently as major indexes tick the underside of clear resistance, as was also illustrated in NFTRH 862.

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