S&P 500 Upside May Slow Near 200-Day MA After April Rally

Published 05/05/2025, 05:54
Updated 05/05/2025, 08:00

One advantage of making predictions and leaving such predictions on a chart is that you can see how right (or wrong) you are, and how your perception of the market differs from the market as a whole.

The S&P 500 has been on a charge since the modest retrace in mid-April. The April rally has taken itself past the March swing low and the 50-day MA, and is set to challenge the 200-day MA this week. Given this has been in solid rally mode, I would not be surprised to see a pause at the 200-day MA.

SPX-Daily Chart

On the weekly chart, the tag of resistance is almost picture-perfect. If I were to make a prediction, look for an intra-week spike high, but perhaps an end-of-week finish at, or just below, marked resistance.SPX-Weekly Chart

The Russell 2000 (IWM) has reached converged 50-day MA and March swing lows. Given what has gone for the Nasdaq and S&P 500 I would not expect these resistance levels to last very long. Technicals are net positive, although trading volume has dropped off significantly since the capitulation low.

IWM-Daily Chart

The Nasdaq is also fast approaching both its March swing high and its 200-day MA. Technicals are net positive, and its outperforming the Russell 2000, but not the S&P 500. The index is slightly more overbought than the S&P 500 on both short-term and intermediate stochastics, which means it’s well placed to accelerate (just as an oversold state can mean markets are about to crash). The coming week could deliver some sharp advances if it can clear its 200-day MA.

Nasdaq Composite-Daily Chart

Ironically, the safe pair of hands might be Bitcoin (BTC/USD). After clearing significant resistance of 92,500, it now finds itself in a modest move back to this new support.BTC/USD-Daily Chart

The Semiconductor Index has had a rough 2025, but this index is enjoying net bullish technicals and is outperforming the Nasdaq 100. This index finished Friday above its 50-day MA, but there is plenty of room to go before it reaches its next resistance level, giving day traders something to work with.

SOX-Daily Chart

The action of last week leaves all indices in a bullish setup, perhaps with the exception of the Russell 2000 ($IWM), only because the latter index is at natural resistance. As the days pass, markets are shaping more of a V-reversal bottom, and look to claw back more of the Trump-induced losses.

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