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Following the ostentatiously presented feud between President Trump and Elon Musk, the media space has been filled with speculation about SpaceX contracts. This ramped up in early June after President Trump posted on Truth Social that “The easiest way to save money in our Budget, Billions and Billions of Dollars, is to terminate Elon’s Governmental Subsidies and Contracts.”
As of mid-June, the only official reaction to that line of reasoning is that the Defense Department and NASA will collate contract details for potential review. Combined with Tesla’s subsidies, the cumulative value of Musk’s government contracts is estimated to be $38 billion, according to The Washington Post’s research.
Most recently in a response to another Trump post, Elon Musk said to “CUT IT ALL. Now.” Although it is highly unlikely that such a disruption in the aerospace sector would be allowed, it is possible that some SpaceX funding tweaks are made, opening up the door for other companies. The question is, where do publicly traded Rocket Lab and Intuitive Machines fit in?
Rocket Lab Corp.
After racking up 68 launches with its light Electron rockets, with only four failures, Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (NASDAQ:RKLB) continues to impress with consistent reliability. During 2025, the company accomplished 10 launches, all of which were 100% successful.
As such, Rocket Lab is likely to continue securing government contracts. Already, the Air Force picked the company to participate in its massive $46 billion funding umbrella for Eglin Wide Agile Acquisition Contract (EWAAC) that lasts until 2031, designed for acquisition of innovative technologies.
As a pathway for larger contracts, the U.S. Space Force’s Space Systems Command granted Rocket Lab $5 million in late March to expand its launch systems portfolio. Abroad, the U.K.’s Ministry of Defence included Rocket Lab for its $1.3 billion program for hypersonic capabilities development.
This program complements Rocket Lab’s April contract for the Multi-Service Advanced Capability Hypersonic Test Bed (MACH-TB) 2.0 initiative for the U.S. Department of Defense, worth $1.45 billion.
However, the UK contract could open doors to wider European funding, given the €800 billion ReArm Europe plan announced in March 2025. This likelihood increased in late May after the signing of a $460 million deal with Arizona-based Geost to participate in building the Golden Dome missile defense system.
Alongside integration into the military industrial complex, Rocket Lab is yet to cross its major milestone with medium-lift rockets Neutron. This would put the company on par with SpaceX’s Falcon 9 cost-effectiveness, representing true publicly traded competition. The first Neutron launch is still scheduled for late 2025 on Wallops Island in Virginia.
Ahead of this much anticipated launch of a new era for the company, the U.S. Space Force’s National Security Space Launch (NSSL) already added Neutron to its $5.6 billion program running through 2029.
On the financial front, Rocket Lab had its strongest quarter in Q1 2025, churning out $122.6 million revenue, an uptick of 32% from the year-ago quarter. Although still at net loss due to development expenses, with an accumulated deficit of $874.3 million, the company has $303 million in cash reserves.
At present, Rocket Lab holds a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 33.59, which is greatly above the average 4.94 for the aerospace & defense sector. Year-to-date, RKLB stock is up nearly 40%, to the current price of $35 per share. Per WSJ forecasting data, this is above the average RKLB price target of $32.18, while still under the expected top of $45 per share.
Still, no analysts recommend selling at this price point, with 4 in the hold camp and 10 in the buy direction.
Intuitive Machines Inc.
While Rocket Lab represents an exposure to both defense contracts and commercial satellite launches to go against SpaceX, Intuitive Machines Inc (NASDAQ:LUNR)’ prospect is much simpler. The company relies almost entirely on taxpayer money through NASA, as long as the agency is tasked with the exploration of the Moon.
Moreover, Intuitive Machines’ missions are few and far between, which opens up speculative waves of excitement for the next launch. On its last IM-2 in early March, the Nova-C lander dubbed Athena flipped on its side, counting as a failure after the rapid depletion of its battery pack.
It turned out that Athena’s laser altimeters failed to properly account for the descent. The long shadows of the southern polar region further complicated the landing, as the visuals of the craters didn’t quite match up with NASA’s LRO (Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter) imaging.
However, the landing itself was achieved and lessons were learned to put in better redundancy systems. In the meantime, Intuitive Machines has plenty of cash runway, at $373.25 million ending March, for its next IM-3 mission in early 2026. Carried by SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, the mission is expected to deliver a rover, data satellite, and other payloads to detail the Moon’s Reiner Gamma region.
As each mission improves in success and reliability, delivering high quality images, and paving the way for more advanced lunar logistics, it is likely that the Moon buzz will increase exposure to LUNR stock.
Year-to-date, LUNR stock is down 45%, which is a good development for long-term investors. Against the current price of $10.59, the average LUNR stock price target is $15.69, with even the bottom of $12 above the present price level. The ceiling price target for LUNR shares is $21.50 per share.
At press time, no analysts recommend selling LUNR stock, 2 recommend holding and 7 are bullish.
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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our website policy prior to making financial decisions.
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