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The US Dollar closed at 97.59, with an intraday high of 97.60 and a low of 97.56. Price action continues to hover near the bottom end of its recent range, with momentum indicators pointing to underlying weakness.
Key Technical Observations
- Moving Averages Bearish: The 15-day moving average (97.88) is below the 20-day moving average (97.97), confirming short-term downside pressure.
- Trend Structure: The index remains in a broad downtrend from its 110 peak last year, with repeated failures to sustain bounces above the 100 level.
- RSI Neutral-Bearish: The RSI sits at 44.61, below the midpoint, indicating weak momentum and bias toward sellers.
- Sideways Compression: Recent candles show small ranges and indecision, but within a broader bearish context.
Macro & Market Context
- US Data Weakness: Recent softness in U.S. economic indicators has weighed on the dollar.
- Fed Policy Outlook: Expectations for rate cuts later in the year continue to suppress the index upside.
- Risk Appetite: Equity strength and demand for higher-yielding currencies put further pressure on safe-haven USD flows.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: 98.00 – moving average cluster & short-term rejection zone.
- Next Resistance: 99.50 – psychological round number.
- Immediate Support: 97.50 – current floor.
- Breakdown Support: 96.00 – major support if selling pressure resumes.
Bias: Bearish-to-Neutral
Until DXY clears above the 98.50–99.00 zone, momentum favours downside continuation or sideways drift with a bearish tilt.
Patience may be needed near support. A break below 97.50 could accelerate weakness toward 96.00, while rebounds into the 98.00–99.00 area remain selling opportunities unless sustained closes reclaim that zone.
