USD/JPY – Sideways Consolidation After Bearish Drop

The USD/JPY pair closed at 149.63, with an intraday high of 151.48 and a low of 149.39. Price action has shifted into a sideways range after a strong downtrend from late 2024 highs, showing signs of stabilization but without a clear breakout direction yet.

Key Technical Observations

• Moving Averages Neutral:
  The 15-day moving average (152.56) is below the 20-day moving average (153.19), but both are flattening out. This suggests that bearish momentum has cooled, and the pair is now in consolidation.
• Trend Structure:
  After peaking near 156, the pair entered a persistent downtrend, finding support around 147.00–147.50. Current price is stuck in a sideways band between 147.00 support and 151.50 resistance.
• RSI Balanced:
  The RSI sits at 52.08, just above neutral, reflecting indecision and consolidation. No immediate overbought or oversold conditions are present.
• Range-Bound Trading:
  The last several weeks show compressed candles and wicks around the same levels, confirming that buyers and sellers are waiting for a decisive trigger.

Macro & Market Context

• BoJ Policy Watch: Investors remain cautious over potential Bank of Japan shifts from ultra-loose policy, keeping downside risks for the pair alive.
• US Yield Dynamics: A softer U.S. yield outlook reduces USD carry appeal, weighing on upside.
• Risk Appetite: Markets remain risk-on, limiting yen safe-haven demand, which has helped the pair stabilize.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: 151.50 – top of recent consolidation.
• Next Resistance: 152.50 – former breakdown zone aligned with the 15/20-day moving averages.
• Immediate Support: 147.50 – well-tested base of current range.
• Deeper Support: 145.00 – stronger downside pivot if selling pressure builds.

Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish

While the sharp downtrend has paused, the pair remains capped below key resistance. Momentum is neutral, but the bias leans bearish as long as the pair trades under 151.50–152.50. A breakdown under 147.00 could re-open the path toward 145.00.

The pair is consolidating in a sideways range. Short-term traders may look to sell near 151.50–152.00 and buy near 147.00, with stops just outside the band. A breakout beyond either boundary will likely set the next major move.