USD/JPY: Bullish Momentum Consolidates as Buyers Defend Key Support

USD/JPY closed at 152.30, after touching a high of 152.74 and a low of 152.27. The pair continues to hold near recent highs, consolidating after a sharp rally from the 148.00 zone. The price structure suggests a pause within an uptrend, as bulls defend key support levels while momentum remains constructive.

Key Technical Observations

Moving Averages Remain Bullish: The 15-day moving average (151.89) and 20-day moving average (151.12) are both rising, and the price is trading above both — confirming a sustained bullish bias. The slope of the moving averages remains positive, signalling that dips are being absorbed by short-term buyers.

Trend Structure: After breaking above the 150.00 psychological barrier, the pair has established a strong higher-high and higher-low structure. The recent pullback from the 153.00 region appears to be a healthy consolidation phase rather than a trend reversal. As long as price holds above 151.00, the broader bullish pattern remains intact.

RSI Momentum: The RSI (59.94) remains above the 50-neutral line, reflecting continued bullish momentum without entering overbought territory. This suggests that buying interest remains firm, though short-term profit-taking may slow upside follow-through temporarily.

Price Behaviour: The pair is consolidating just below 152.70–153.00, a critical resistance zone that has capped gains in prior attempts. A daily close above this area could trigger a bullish continuation toward 154.50–155.00, while failure to break higher might lead to a brief retest of the 151.00 zone.

Macro & Market Context

Yield Dynamics: The widening yield differential between U.S. Treasuries and Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) continues to favour the dollar. With the Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates and the Bank of Japan remaining ultra-dovish, the carry trade dynamic is firmly supportive of the pair.

Market Sentiment: Despite some risk aversion in global markets, the pair remains supported due to structural capital outflows from Japan and ongoing U.S. yield strength. Intervention concerns from Japanese authorities may slow the pace of gains, but are unlikely to reverse the underlying trend unless price spikes beyond 155.00.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: 152.70 – short-term ceiling; breakout zone.
• Next Resistance: 154.50 – multi-month high and psychological level.
• Immediate Support: 151.00 – near-term pivot and 20-day moving average.
• Deeper Support: 150.00 – key round number and former breakout area.

Bias: Bullish

The trend remains bullish while above 151.00, with potential to retest 153.00–154.50. Only a sustained close below 150.00 would signal a shift in short-term sentiment.

The technical bias favours buy-on-dip opportunities above 151.00, targeting 153.00–154.50, with stops below 150.00. RSI readings indicate room for further upside, and the pair remains well-supported by fundamentals tied to yield spreads.