USD/JPY: Bullish Momentum Returns With Focus on 152.50 Resistance

USD/JPY closed at 152.48, with an intraday high of 152.63 and a low of 151.64. The pair extended its bullish momentum, breaking above prior consolidation and holding near multi-week highs. However, price action shows early signs of resistance near 152.50, which has historically acted as a key ceiling for the pair.

Key Technical Observations

Moving Averages Alignment: The 15-day moving average (150.61) and 20-day moving average (150.19) are positively sloped and well below current price levels — confirming bullish control. This alignment indicates that short-term momentum continues to favour buyers, though an overextension could prompt near-term profit-taking.

Trend Structure: The pair has recovered strongly from the 146.00 base, forming a sequence of higher lows and higher highs. The breakout above 150.00 confirms a shift back into a bullish phase, but the region between 152.50–153.00 remains a critical test zone for continuation.

RSI Momentum: The RSI prints at 56.56, suggesting healthy bullish momentum without being overbought. This leaves room for further upside before any exhaustion signals appear. However, the indicator has flattened slightly, hinting that momentum may slow if the pair stalls below resistance.

Price Behaviour: Price action remains constructive, with shallow pullbacks and consistent dip buying around the 150.50–151.00 zone. A daily close above 152.50 would open a path toward 153.80–155.00, while a rejection could lead to a pullback toward moving average support.

Macro & Market Context

Yield Differential Theme: The Bank of Japan’s commitment to ultra-loose monetary policy continues to weigh on the yen, while elevated U.S. yields underpin the US dollar. As long as the Fed maintains a restrictive stance, the pair remains supported by wide rate differentials.

Risk Environment: Improved global risk sentiment has limited the yen’s safe-haven appeal. However, any sudden shift toward risk aversion or intervention chatter from Japan’s Ministry of Finance could trigger volatility.

BoJ Watch: Traders are monitoring BoJ comments for signs of potential yield curve control adjustments. Any hawkish rhetoric could temporarily cap upside momentum, but thus far, official comments remain dovish.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: 152.50 – key breakout zone.

• Next Resistance: 153.80–155.00 – historical swing highs.

• Immediate Support: 151.00 – short-term pivot and breakout retest level.

• Deeper Support: 149.80–150.00 – dynamic support from 15- and 20-day moving averages.

Bias: Bullish

Momentum remains constructive, with the trend structure and moving averages favouring further gains. A sustained break above 152.50 could signal renewed bullish extension toward 153.80, while failure to clear resistance may trigger short-term mean reversion to 150.50.

The bias favours buy-on-dip strategies above 151.00, targeting 153.00–153.80 with stops below 150.00. Traders should watch for a clean daily close above 152.50 for confirmation of bullish continuation — but stay alert to possible verbal or policy interventions by Japanese authorities near the 153.00 zone.