TSX up after index logs fresh record high close
USD/JPY is trading at 147.73, after touching an intraday high of 147.75 and a low of 147.09. Price action continues to consolidate around short-term moving averages, with the 15-day moving average at 147.47 and the 20-day moving average at 147.51 nearly overlapping—signalling indecision but with a slight upward lean.
Key Technical Observations
- Flat MAs: Both the 15-day and 20-day moving averages are flattening, showing that momentum has cooled but buyers are still defending dips.
- Range Formation: Price has been locked between 146.50 support and 148.50 resistance, showing a well-defined sideways structure.
- RSI at 52.20: The RSI sits just above neutral, suggesting mild bullish momentum but no overbought pressure.
- Higher Lows Support Bias: Despite range trading, higher lows since the February bottom around 146.00 suggest bulls may try another push higher.
Macro & Market Context
- U.S. Yields: Movements in Treasury yields remain the dominant driver for the pair. Stability in yields caps volatility in the pair.
- BoJ Watch: Traders remain cautious about the Bank of Japan’s next moves. Any hint of policy normalization could drive sharp yen strength.
- Risk Sentiment: Global equity resilience supports yen-funded carry trades, but risk-off shocks could quickly tilt the balance.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: 148.50 (range top, near-term breakout zone)
- Next Resistance: 150.00 (psychological barrier and prior rejection)
- Immediate Support: 147.00 (near moving average cluster)
- Breakdown Support: 146.00 (range floor, key swing low)
Bias: Neutral with Mild Bullish Tilt
Price remains range-bound, but the structure favours upside attempts if bulls can maintain closes above 147.00. A clean break above 148.50 would open the way toward 150.00. Conversely, a close below 146.00 could flip bias bearish.
Patience remains key. Look for dip buys near 147.00 with tight stops, or wait for a confirmed breakout above 148.50 to join bullish momentum. Avoid chasing inside the 146.50–148.50 band to minimize whipsaw risks.