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As always, guys, we got lots to get through. We’re going to look at the US dollar majors and what to do with the US dollar. We’re going to look at this Japanese yen strength that came into the market, and we’re also going to look at some potential great opportunities with Aussie dollar pairs as well. So let’s take a look at my first example.
Before we do, we need to understand the indices because so much derives from the indices. Okay, now this is the NASDAQ and we know we’ve had a bit of a sell-off, but this is the weekly chart. All right, so we need to look at the bigger picture. And on the weekly chart, we’re still in an uptrend, right? We’re getting higher lows.
This low held, and we’re getting higher highs. So, we’re still in an uptrend, and we are at a key support level. You can see prices reacted here, here, and here in the past. So, can the indices push on from here? If they do, we are going to see a risk-on environment. And a risk-on environment would mean strength in the Aussie dollar, and we’re going to look at some opportunities around that. If we get a break of this level, then we are going to see some strength in the flight to safeties like gold, yen, and even Swiss Franc. So that’s why we need to look at the indices first of all.
Um let’s go to yen pairs now, right, because we have seen some yen strength come into the market. So if we look at any of them, let’s just go to AUD/JPY. Now again I’m starting with the weekly charts guys because this is my weekly forecast but we are going to look at the lower time frames and pinpoint entries etc as well. Now, AUD/JPY is in an uptrend, but look at that weekly candle, right? There was a bit of a selloff on Friday on yen pairs. Is it just profit taking or is this the start of some yen strength? Either way, I do not want to buy into that candle. Okay? Because if you look at the daily chart, right, some yen pairs are showing us some nice opportunities, right? We’re in this uptrend. We’ve retraced to these last lows. You know, could we come back up to these highs? And the answer for me is no. I don’t want to do that because of that big weekly bearish candle.
Let’s take a look at another example. So, GBP/JPY. If we look at the weekly chart again, right, we can clearly see we’re in this uptrend. But you can clearly see this resistance level here and price we had a massive wick rejection at that level. So again I don’t want to trade this yen strength that’s come into the market. If we look at the day chart right it’s clearly in an uptrend and you know this candle here has even broken this last high. We’re clearly in an uptrend, but I just don’t want to keep buying into that level because of that weekly candle. And that’s the story with the yen pairs. The only one I would trade is New Zealand dollar yen.
And why is that? So, let’s understand this, right? So, on the weekly, you can see that we are ranging between here and here, right? The market is just ranging. Okay? And this is where we’re at. Now, if we drop down to the day chart now, okay, and we zoom in a little bit, you can clearly see that range that I’m talking about, right? We’re in this range and we’ve had that yen strength that we were talking about and this big bearish candle that formed. Now, I’m interested in this pair because this is in a range, right? All the other yen pairs are in an uptrend, but this is ranging. So, we could potentially come all the way back down to this 86.50, if not complete the range down to this 86.0. And this would be the only yen pair I look at.
Now, what I would need to see happen is this. If you look at the H4, guys, you can clearly see this important level through here. It just keeps acting as good support. Now, the only way I’ll be interested in NZD/JPY sales is if potentially we get this and then we get an eventual break of this level, right? I would look for a retrace, put my stops above the last highs and then I’d look to take price lower. All right, so NZD/JPY, if that happens, is my first trade idea.
we will get on to the dollar majors very shortly. Now, we’re going to look at Aussie dollar as well. So in a risk-on environment, right, you will see Aussie dollar strength. So if the indices are ticking up, you’re going to see Aussie dollar strength and we’re at that important support level that I showed you. Now, if we go to the weekly chart, if we do get a bounce off that level on the NASDAQ or, you know, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and indices start going up, we’re going to see Aussie dollar strength,
And as you can see here, guys, on the weekly, Aussie dollar, Canadian dollar is in this uptrend. And this is in a bit of a range as well But we’re in an uptrend and we’re at the bottom of the range. So it makes a lot of sense that we can come to the top of the range and this blue line is my target. Okay. If we drop down to the day chart now you can see the massive bullish daily candle that we got at that level. That’s telling us buyers have come in in force into this market. The problem we have here is that we’re still in a downtrend.
So really guys, how I’d like to trade is daily and weekly are pulling in the same direction. So perhaps we get something like this. It comes down and tests these lows and then we get a break of a high, right? Then I’ll be interested in buying Aussie dollar, Canadian dollar once we start seeing a daily uptrend. And this is a double bottom pattern, right? So if we start seeing something like this, then I’m very much interested in taking it back up to these highs. But I have to see that daily trend break. So that’s what we’ll be waiting for with Aussie dollar, Canadian dollar.
The next Aussie dollar pair is AUD/CHF. And this is a similar scenario, If we go to the weekly chart, you can see we’re ranging, We’ve just been hitting this level, right? And just ranging. Now we’re at the bottom of the range. Okay, makes sense that we can come to the top of the range, And this blue line will be my target. And we’ve had a nice bullish reaction at this support level, So everything’s telling us we can buy. And remember guys, that’s your job as a trader to find confluence, basically reasons to take the trade. And this is what I’m showing you as part of this weekly forex forecast. These are my reasons for taking these trades.
Now, if we go to the day chart, we have the same problem that we did with Aussie dollar, Canadian dollar. We are in a downtrend. So again, if I see something like this and we get a daily break, right, I’ll be looking to take price back up to this level here as well. Okay? And also guys, my entry time frame is the H4. So, we want to be trading with H4 trend as well. But before we even look at the H4, we need that daily structure break. Okay. Um, so yeah, Aussie dollar, Swiss Frank.
And the last Aussie dollar pair we’re going to take a look at before we get into the US dollar majors is EUR/AUD. Again, let’s start with the weekly chart because this is my weekly forecast and we’re looking at trades for next week as a whole. But this is nice, guys, right? Because as you can see on the weekly, we were in this uptrend. We stopped making higher highs. That’s always a big red flag that trend could change. Sure enough, it breaks these lows with this candle here. And then we’ve kind of come back up, tested these highs, and then we’ve come back down here. And here we are. We’re in a bit of a downtrend stroke range here as well. Okay. And we’ve had a bit of a wick rejection here.
Now, in that case, it makes sense we can come down to this 1.7600 psychological level. If we drop to the day chart now, you’ll see that we’re in a slightly different range. The range is more between here and here. And this was a bit of an outlier, right? Because you can see, look at these candles reacting at that level. Now again, right, it makes sense. We get a big bearish candle at a resistance level and we’ve got room to trade into to complete the range. Okay, but I don’t like this price action, right? So, what I want to see on the H4 is a breakdown of trend. Now, you can clearly see this level through here, right? Let’s just drag that across. You can clearly see this is an important level, right? It just keeps reacting at this level.
Now, two ways I’ll trade this. Maybe if price just comes down and we end up getting a break like this, right? I will take this trade, get a retest into here, I’ll look to come lower. Okay. Now, a more aggressive entry would be this. Right, we’re currently in a H4 uptrend. Maybe it comes back up and tests this high and then we get a breakdown here. I would still trade this because it meets my criteria, right? We’re getting that H4 breakdown. So, as soon as I saw this, I would look to take price down to here where I would take some profit off the trade and then I’d leave some profit to run as well.
All right, guys. So, yeah, those are the Aussie dollar pairs I’m looking at. Um, let’s take a look at the US dollar majors. So let’s look at the dollar index right now. If you look at last week’s weekly forecast, not to pat myself on the back, but I said last week we were down here and I said we are looking at US dollar strength until we hit this 100 level and that’s exactly what happened in the market. Yes, I am blowing my own trumpet, right? But now the dollar is at this 100 level. You know, we really need to see what happens here. and nothing is definitive as yet. So, this is preventing me a little bit and keeping me away from the US dollar majors. If I show you the weekly chart, let me just show you how important that big psychological $100 level is. It has been a crucial level obviously for the US dollar right now. You know, do you want to start selling from this level? Not really, because we have a very bullish weekly candle, sorry.
Um, and do you want to start buying? The answer is no, because you would be buying into resistance. So, there’s the problem with the US dollar right now. Now if we ended up next week it could be a trade right? If we ended up getting a break of this level, right, and we starting trading firmly above the 100 level, then great. I am bullish US dollar. I’ll look for retraces in here to come higher, The alternative is if we start seeing big bearish candles in here, And on the daily we end up getting maybe a structure break that looks something like this. And we get a structure break then I will become a dollar seller. So that’s what I need to see right now. I’m not interested in trading it. Need to see what it does at that level.
Now having said that, the only US dollar pair that I would look at would be NZD/USD because as you can see on the weekly chart, we’re in this downtrend. Okay? And we’re seeing, you know, all of this selling pressure, bearish candles, and we’ve got that bit more room to move into. You remember earlier guys, the only yen pair I would trade was NZD/JPY sells and now the only US dollar pair I would sell is NZD/USD sales. Right? So that’s interesting guys that supports what we’re seeing. So we’ve got a little bit more room to move into. If we look at the daily, we’re clearly in that daily downtrend as well.
So, if right if we start seeing on Monday big bearish candles in here because we’re still in a H4 downtrend. If I start seeing bearish H4 candles in here, I will take this trade down to here. All right. And then potentially leave some profit to run down to those weekly levels. All right, guys. So, yeah, that is my weekly Forex forecast. And I’ll see you next time.