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XRP trades at $2.15 after a sharp 15.75% weekly drop, pulling the market into a tightening volatility phase as sellers continue to overpower every bounce. The $2.20 zone has now acted as the most aggressively defended level for three consecutive sessions, but each retest shows weakening absorption. XRP’s failure to reclaim $2.27 and $2.30 confirms that the descending trendline—active since July—still dictates momentum. Price remains capped beneath the 20-day EMA at $2.35, the 50-day EMA at $2.49, the 200-day EMA at $2.56 and the 100-day EMA at $2.60. This entire cluster forms a heavy ceiling that repeatedly rejects intraday attempts to break higher, locking XRP inside a controlled downslope channel even as volatility reaches multi-week highs.
The pennant forming directly above the $2.00 structural floor started tightening after the post-capitulation snapback, where price reclaimed $2.07 and bounced twice from $2.00 with clear defense from longer-term wallets. This structure—now defined by converging trendlines at $2.20 and $2.35—shows the type of equilibrium that historically precedes large directional shifts. Volume compression reinforces that the market is storing energy rather than trending. The apex sits closer to late Q4, meaning XRP can remain inside the narrowing zone for weeks before a decisive break. A push above $2.40 would be the first sign of structural recovery, but sellers continue defending the micro-resistance range between $2.30 and $2.35 with visible aggression. A daily close under $2.00 destroys the entire setup and switches XRP into liquidity-seeking mode toward $1.96 and $1.90.
Spot flows remain one of the strongest bearish signals in the current XRP landscape. Coinglass data shows $9.4 million in outflows in the latest session, extending a multi-week distribution streak where supply continuously moves off exchanges rather than being absorbed. Retail participation remains shallow compared to July’s peak, when futures Open Interest hit $10.94 billion. Today’s OI sits at $3.61 billion–$3.68 billion, barely one-third of the previous cycle high, showing a drastic contraction in speculative engagement. Even after brief rebounds, flows remained red, confirming that traders lack conviction for upside positioning. XRP’s failure to respond to the ETF debut—despite $58.6 million first-day volume and $250 million in early inflows in related products—reflects that distribution pressure is still in control.
Futures markets are active but cautious. Open Interest rose 1% to $3.68 billion, yet the long-short ratio at 0.96 proves the market is evenly balanced—with neither side showing aggressive dominance. Top trader positioning on Binance leans long, hinting at early attempts to catch a reversal, but this activity lacks broader market confirmation. Trading volume rising 48% points to repositioning rather than trend confidence. The absence of major long or short liquidations indicates that the market is preparing for a larger move but hasn’t committed direction. With the MACD flashing a sell signal and RSI pinned at 42 without higher lows, momentum remains tilted to the downside until bulls prove readiness at a resistance level instead of merely defending support.
Technical structure reinforces the bearish narrative. The 50-day EMA crossing below the 200-day EMA activates a textbook Death Cross, a pattern that strengthens risk-off sentiment whenever macro conditions amplify fear. XRP failed at the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $2.83, the 0.50 level at $2.77, and the lower-timeframe rejection zone near $2.35. Each Fibonacci checkpoint became progressively lower, revealing consistent loss of altitude and confirming that bulls do not have momentum to rebuild structure. XRP now trades below all key EMAs, forming a stacked resistance barrier that historically precedes extended corrective phases. This system of upper-layer resistance is why every attempt toward $2.30–$2.35 fails immediately, showing the market is not ready for a sustained breakout.
Institutional appetite mirrors retail softness. XRP-related digital asset products registered $15.5 million in outflows last week despite the broader spotlight on crypto ETFs. Monetary policy uncertainty continues to choke demand across risk assets, with Bitcoin ETFs losing $1.38 billion and Ethereum products shedding $689 million. XRP’s ETF excitement—$58.6 million day-one volume and $250 million reported inflows—did not translate into durable bullishness. Weak derivatives interest and thinning inflow support reveal that institutions remain hesitant to buy dips aggressively. The XRP market is not experiencing the same “institutional accumulation under stress” narrative visible in Bitcoin or Solana during previous cycles. Instead, XRP remains dependent on retail strength, which is currently absent.
Support at $2.20 remains critical, but the deeper structure shows that the true liquidity zones sit at $2.07, $2.05, and $1.95. The $2.07 level aligns with the first capitulation recovery pivot. The $2.05 area marks the midpoint of the downslope channel visible on 30-minute charts. Finally, $1.95 acts as the major demand block formed during the previous accumulation cycle before the July top at $3.66. These three layers create the last meaningful defensive structure before XRP reenters the July–October liquidation corridor. A break below $2.00 would almost certainly trigger a rapid liquidity sweep toward $1.95 due to the absence of volume nodes between $2.00 and $1.96.
On lower timeframes, XRP remains trapped inside a clean descending channel. Supertrend stays red, Parabolic SAR dots print above price on most swings, and each bounce toward the upper boundary fades earlier than the previous one. The channel floor near $2.12 acts as the next intraday checkpoint, and losing it reopens $2.05 within hours under high-volatility conditions. Intraday traders are positioning cautiously: without a reclaim of $2.30 that sticks on the hourly close, the market will continue to treat every upward move as a corrective rally rather than a trend reversal.
Momentum returns only if XRP closes above $2.30 and then $2.35. Doing so flips the micro-structure bullish and sets the stage for a run toward $2.56, then $2.77 and eventually $2.92. But the bearish scenario remains stronger for now. A daily close under $2.20 activates the slide into the $2.05–$1.95 zone. Until buyers demonstrate strength at resistance—not just survival at support—the bears remain fully in control.
XRP USD Final Verdict: Sell Bias Maintained Until XRP Breaks Above $2.35 With Conviction
The data, technicals, spot flows, derivatives posture, ETF reaction curve and macro-correlated risk behavior all point in the same direction. XRP is not demonstrating reversal conditions yet. Support is weakening, volume is fading, spot outflows dominate, and every rally attempt dies beneath the trendline.
Verdict: Sell
XRP-USD remains bearish until price regains $2.30–$2.35 with volume and breaks the descending structure that has capped the asset since July. Only then does the probability of a recovery toward $2.56, $2.77 and $2.92 become credible.
That’s TradingNEWS.com