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Despite the Western press describing Friday’s meeting as a ’failure’, financial markets are continuing to trade like there could be some – still undetermined – path to peace. Benign conditions look...
We expect a 0.4% month-on-month core CPI print in the US today, above the 0.3% consensus. That should offer the US dollar support, but we don’t think that will prompt markets to seriously price out a...
We expect the FX market to remain predominantly driven by data, and continue to treat expectations about a potential ceasefire in Ukraine with caution ahead of Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting. We expect...
The UK jobs market is creaking, providing plenty of justification for a 25 basis point rate cut this month. But it’s a nuanced picture, which, set against sticky inflation data, suggests little...
Yesterday’s US inflation failed to validate dovish bets on the Fed and triggered a bounce in the oversold US dollar. We see more room for hawkish repricing in the coming weeks, and accordingly,...
UK markets are beginning to price in the possibility that a new Chancellor could change the fiscal rules and loosen Britain's purse strings, at a time when annual debt issuance is already perilously...
Today's FX market focus is squarely on the June US jobs report. Does a consensus +110k release provide cover for Fed Chair Powell to continue resisting pressure to cut rates? Or will a weak number...
Yesterday’s US data (JOLTS and ISM manufacturing) were stronger than expected, but this provided only limited support for a US dollar still suffering from an asymmetrical negative bias. To watch...
The Sino-American trade negotiations in London have yielded plans to revive the flow of sensitive goods, but have failed to mark a breakthrough and leave the US dollar still vulnerable to domestic...
The greenback has not held on to post-trade-deal gains for long, and while a soft CPI was the trigger for the correction, we think yesterday’s moves signal a clear preference for strategic short-USD...
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