ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Heading into Wednesday’s potential US tariff deadline, FX traders will remember that it was the Swiss franc that was the big winner at the height of April’s market unrest. Today, the Swiss franc...

Comex copper futures surged to a record after President Trump said he planned a 50% tariff on copper imports, more than the market expected Metals – Trump Says He Plans 50% Tariffs on Copper...

Financial markets have reacted to news of higher US tariffs in sanguine fashion. Equity markets have recovered most of their initial losses, bond markets have barely budged and in FX, Asian...

Oil prices managed to settle higher yesterday despite the announced supply increase from OPEC+ Energy – Oil Rallies Despite OPEC+ Supply Increase While prices initially slid yesterday following a...

FX markets are preparing for a noisy week that could upset the benign volatility conditions seen over the last two months, although the fallout should be nowhere near the levels seen in April. The US...

Oil prices are under pressure this morning after OPEC+ increased supply by more than expected for August Energy – OPEC+ Goes With a Larger Supply Hike ICE Brent is trading lower this morning after...

US President Donald Trump’s 90-day trade reprieve is ending. Tariff noise is back, but does it really matter? US inflation has stayed surprisingly benign and the economy is holding up, despite the...

Starting at 12:01 AM EST on 9 July, reciprocal tariffs ranging from 11% to 50% will be reinstated unless formal trade agreements, such as the US/UK agreement, or high-level deals like the one between...

In spite of a better-than-expected US June jobs report and a 10/12bp jump in short-dated US interest rates, the US dollar is barely changed from its soft levels seen this time yesterday. Seemingly,...

A stronger-than-expected June jobs report indicates no Federal Reserve rate cut before September despite the President’s demands. Nonetheless, households are becoming more pessimistic about...

UK markets are beginning to price in the possibility that a new Chancellor could change the fiscal rules and loosen Britain's purse strings, at a time when annual debt issuance is already perilously...

Today's FX market focus is squarely on the June US jobs report. Does a consensus +110k release provide cover for Fed Chair Powell to continue resisting pressure to cut rates? Or will a weak number...

The trade deal between the US and Vietnam boosted oil prices. However, with OPEC+ set to decide on August output levels, the move higher could be short-lived. In addition, 9 July marks the end of the...

The unemployment rate increased from 6.2% to 6.3% in May. This increase was mainly driven by a jump in unemployment in Italy, but overall, the labour market remains strong with significant shortages...

Yesterday’s US data (JOLTS and ISM manufacturing) were stronger than expected, but this provided only limited support for a US dollar still suffering from an asymmetrical negative bias. To watch...

The ISM manufacturing index remains in contraction territory, but the job vacancy statistics are holding up fairly well, and inflation pressures remain elevated. Fed Chair Powell, speaking in...