ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The ECB hawks have stepped in to revive depressed rate expectations, but markets are opting for data dependency, and EUR/USD is set to face two key risk events with eurozone inflation figures before...

The oil market continues to face headwinds, both on the macro front and on the back of expectations of supply increases. Meanwhile, the natural gas market could see further volatility over the coming...

While the People's Bank of China continues its battle to keep the USD/CNY under 7.30, markets will take a close look at PMIs today. The main focus will be on the eurozone – Germany in particular...

Oil edged higher yesterday following some good US macro data. However, this data also increases the likelihood of further rate hikes. And the expectation of further hikes will ultimately provide...

Another day brings another set of data to support further Fed tightening. That should be the main story with the release of US personal income data and the core PCE deflator for May. Barring a data...

The Federal Reserve leaves US interest rates unchanged but signals more hikes are on the cards with some hawkish projections for the economy. July is a 'live' meeting, according to Powell, but a...

The European Central Bank continues its hiking cycle and shows no sign of pausing any time soon.One month ahead of the first anniversary of what has become the ECB’s most aggressive tightening...

It was a mixed set of data for the oil market yesterday. The IEA report was fairly neutral with both supply and demand growth estimates increasing by 0.2MMbbls/d. The weekly report from the EIA was...

Markets are understandably skittish about the health of the financial sector, which allows bonds to act as a safe haven. We would be wary of acting on large market moves ahead of a week heavy in event...

Yesterday’s risk-off move dragged commodities lower. And with little in the way of oil-related releases this week, oil price direction is likely to continue to be dictated by external...

USD: Be careful chasing the dollar reboundThe release of quarterly earnings in the US continues to paint a better picture for American corporates, with big tech companies beating estimates yesterday....

The most aggressive central bank tightening cycle for decades is reaching its finale. This is our definitive guide to global central banks as we enter another round of crucial meetings over the next...

We assess this year's market themes against our 2023 outlook calls. Rates remain range-bound, and curves have only steepened moderately, but rates differentials keep narrowing. We expect little...

As key central bank meetings draw closer, markets appear to favor European currencies to the detriment of the dollar, whose rate advantage is being eroded. The two-year EUR-USD swap rate differential...

As higher-for-longer gains further traction, yield curves are bear flattening again. Only moderately, though, as risk sentiment holds up with the acute banking crises fading from viewHigher-for-longer...

The commodities complex came under pressure yesterday with a stronger USD weighing on markets. Demand also remains a key concern for the oil market, while for grain markets, a resumption of Black Sea...