ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, and markets had already started pricing out geopolitical risk yesterday as Iran’s retaliatory strikes against the US appeared measured in size. The US...

The eurozone composite PMI came in at 50.2 in June – similar to May – indicating a stagnating economy after a robust first quarter. Concerns about escalation in the Middle East add a new downside...

Since the US targeted Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, supply risks for energy markets have increased significantly amid uncertainty about how Iran will retaliate Moving Closer Towards...

The US dollar is trading higher this morning after the US strikes on Iran. But the moves still look quite small in FX, which suggests lingering reluctance to unwind strategic USD shorts, as well as...

The US dollar has lost some momentum as oil prices corrected slightly lower, and markets still struggle to gauge the probability of the US joining the Middle East conflict. EUR/USD may stabilise now...

We expect a 25bp cut in Switzerland, and holds in the UK, Norway and Turkey. But the main driver for FX remains the Middle East situation and implications for oil prices. The US dollar is likely to...

Markets are now speculating on a US military intervention in Iran, and oil prices are jumping again. This has triggered a renewed safe-haven appeal for the US dollar, although this appears dependent...

Energy markets continue to monitor escalating Israel-Iran conflict, focusing on any signs that Iran may seek to disrupt crude flows across the Strait of Hormuz Energy – Oil Near Five-month High The...

The main story in FX remains the rapidly evolving Middle East conflict. If oil prices correct further due to perceived limited supply risk, the US dollar can follow suit and move lower. However, some...

Oil and gold are rising again after President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Tehran following earlier optimism that the Israel-Iran conflict would remain contained Energy – Oil Remains on...

Geopolitical risks failed to update over the weekend and will remain central in FX price action. The US dollar's rebound has been lacklustre, and while some support is warranted by the current market...

Commodities markets are focused on escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, with the Middle Eastern conflict sparking a surge in oil prices Energy – Oil in Focus Oil extended gains...

A further escalation in Iranian-Israeli tensions could take oil prices above $80 and would mean more upside for the US dollar. The Federal Reserve was already likely to keep rates on hold through the...

The Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities has sent oil prices spiking and has offered the oversold and undervalued US dollar a catalyst for a rebound. The energy price shock is generally...

Oil prices rallied more than 7% this morning after Israeli airstrikes against Iran. This has elevated geopolitical uncertainty significantly and requires the oil market to price in a larger risk...

Tariff front running led to a drop in GDP in the first quarter, but a subsequent plunge in imports means growth of near 4% looks probable in the second. This masks a slowing in private demand growth...