ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Oil is down, and so is copper after hitting record highs in May. Natural gas prices, however, continue to be supported by supply concerns. Oil market in deficit for the remainder of 2024 Oil prices...

A surprise 0.2% MoM core CPI inflation print after a similar reading for April core PCE deflator offers good news for the Fed in its fight to ease price pressures. This needs to become the trend...

US inflation came in at 0.4% MoM for the third consecutive month, more than double the rate we need to consistently hit to bring inflation down to 2% YoY. Expectations for a June Federal Reserve...

Interest rate cut expectations have receded everywhere following the US inflation data, but there are subtle dovish incremental shifts within the BoC’s commentary that suggest should inflation...

By Benjamin SchroederRates are still looking to go higher near term. While supply has helped over the past few days, rates remain sensitive to the data. So far, pushing back the expectations for the...

The RBNZ changed its tone only moderately, keeping the threat of another hike on. However, NZD fell and AUD also declined after lower-than-expected CPI. We think Australia and New Zealand have...

By Benjamin SchroederOverall, we think the bearish sentiment can keep going in the near term. For markets, the main focus remains on the assessment of the US macro backdrop, with plenty of data this...

Overcapacity and continued expansion in the smelting industry in China have led to a steep fall in copper treatment charges. Meanwhile, exchange inventories for copper continued to rise, putting...

January CPI data in Japan confirmed inflation remains above the Bank of Japan's 2.0% target. The yen “survived” the release, but remains around very weak levels and in FX intervention...

Inventories of base metals and steel increased in China over the last week, reflecting slower demand and ample supply in the short termMetals – Global Steel Output FallsSteel inventories at...

We expect an above-consensus 0.4% core PCE read on Thursday, which should support the dollar this week. Eurozone inflation numbers will also be in focus. We expect a decline in the core rate below...

The Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) led equity rally may now have to face the reality of higher rates, and we suspect high-beta currencies are at risk of corrections. Today, the focus will remain on Germany's...

Even if US yields do slip into the weekend, as is quite possible, there are elements next week that will keep the bear phase element to the fore for bonds (watch core PCE carefully). The ECB simply...

US crude oil inventories increased for a fourth consecutive week pushing stocks closer to five-year average levels as domestic demand remains soft. Meanwhile, US natural gas inventory withdrawals...

In a quiet week for the US events calendar, last night's release of the January FOMC meeting minutes served as a reminder that the Fed is in no rush to cut rates. That was not much of a surprise to...

Some unfamiliar strength in Chinese equity markets is providing a little strength to non-dollar currencies. And the FX options market hints that investors may not be that pessimistic on EUR/USD after...