ING Economic and Financial Analysis

We assess this year's market themes against our 2023 outlook calls. Rates remain range-bound, and curves have only steepened moderately, but rates differentials keep narrowing. We expect little...

As key central bank meetings draw closer, markets appear to favor European currencies to the detriment of the dollar, whose rate advantage is being eroded. The two-year EUR-USD swap rate differential...

As higher-for-longer gains further traction, yield curves are bear flattening again. Only moderately, though, as risk sentiment holds up with the acute banking crises fading from viewHigher-for-longer...

The commodities complex came under pressure yesterday with a stronger USD weighing on markets. Demand also remains a key concern for the oil market, while for grain markets, a resumption of Black Sea...

The Hungarian forint sold off 2% yesterday after a local central banker surprised markets by suggesting Hungary could make preparations to start easing interest rates. Central banks in Eastern Europe...

The US Federal Reserve could soon deliver the last hike of the current cycle. While United States 10-Year yields have seen their peak already, it will need the imminent prospect of rate cuts to...

US yields are rising across the curve but T-bills are at the intersection of a better economic outlook and a debt ceiling. Sterling rates are now offering a pick-up to dollar equivalents. This makes...

With two weeks to go before the Fed and ECB meetings, central bank speakers have their last chances to steer market expectations before the quiet periods start. However, it appears markets have fully...

Chinese GDP data was better than expected, while other Chinese activity data was also strong. The data releases helped to push metal prices higher, however, oil was more rangeboundEnergy- Strong...

Oil prices came under pressure yesterday on the back of a stronger USD.Energy - Progress on Northern Iraqi Oil ExportsOil prices started the trading week on a weak footing. ICE Brent settled 1.8%...

Markets are still waiting for the data smoking gun that proves that a recession is coming and that inflation is a problem of the past. Until then, rates should continue to rise toward the top of their...

FX markets continue to be buffeted by opposing forces and are struggling to define short-term trends. Despite some positive Chinese activity data, Asian currencies are not rallying, suggesting that...

Improved risk sentiment has seen oil trade higher over the week, whilst supply concerns have only added further strength. OPEC+ meet early next week and we expect the Joint Ministerial Monitoring...

After the US regional banking crisis and the forced takeover of Credit Suisse sent shockwaves through global markets, concerns over the risk of contagion rippled across the financial sector. Fears may...

We think EUR/USD may break 1.10 next week before the US payrolls, as the dollar remains vulnerable despite some repricing of dovish Fed expectations.USD: Struggling to find supportThe dollar has...

With the yen bearing the brunt of the risk rally, the dollar saw some delayed benefits from the re-tuning in Fed rate expectations and enjoyed a modest recovery yesterday. Today, all eyes will be on...