ING Economic and Financial Analysis

A much busier week in terms of US data will have a major say in whether the Fed cuts rates by 25bp on 18 December. US data poses some downside risks to the US Dollar, but the continued and expanding...

OPEC+ meet this week to discuss output policy for 2025, which will be important for price direction. Meanwhile, European gas prices moved higher on Friday with concern growing over a...

ING’s Head of Markets, Chris Turner, on the FX market after a turbulent week for several currencies following Donald Trump’s social media posts about tariffs, notably on Mexico and...

The US market reopens post-Thanksgiving with limited activity expected. The DXY strengthened slightly, correcting Wednesday’s sell-off. The Brazilian real hit an all-time low due to disappointing...

As expected, Israel and Hezbollah announced a 60-day ceasefire agreement and plans to discuss a longer-lasting peace agreement. The oil market is assessing the new dynamics and how it impacts the...

The highlight of Wednesday's session will be the release of the US October core PCE deflator, expected at 0.3% MoM. Even though the market has largely moved on from the US inflation story, a sticky...

The currencies of Mexico (USD/MXN), Canada (USD/CAD) and China (USD/CNH) are under pressure on Tuesday morning after President-elect Trump signaled readiness to use tariffs to secure tighter US...

Copper and other base metals slipped on Tuesday morning amid the strengthening dollar after Trump vowed additional tariffs Metals – Trump Vows More Tariffs US President-elect Donald Trump said in a...

Expectations of colder weather in the US and an early start to the withdrawal season have seen US natural gas starting the week on a strong note. Meanwhile, the escalation in Russia-Ukraine tensions...

The EUR/USD is recovering a little after its mini collapse on Friday. However, further eurozone confidence data this week could still spell trouble and tilt the market towards a 50bp ECB cut in...

Friday's release of softer-than-expected eurozone PMIs have proved the catalyst for EUR/USD to break to the downside of its two-year trading range. Even though a near 7% drop in just two months is an...

A combination of factors are contributing to the strong dollar, and with geopolitical risks on the rise, we believe it may be risky to try and pick a bottom in EUR/USD just yet. Incidentally, PMIs...

FX markets continue to consolidate after recent volatility, but no one wants to unwind their long dollar positions. Equally, the threat of escalation in Ukraine plus more soft European PMI numbers...

Oil prices have been somewhat insulated by the growing tension between Russia and Ukraine. However, natural gas prices have been more sensitive to these developments, while gold, as one would expect,...

The escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict had only a short-lived impact on FX, and safe-haven demand has rapidly faded. The balance of risks is shifting more to the upside for the US dollar, also...

Brent settled flat yesterday despite rising tension between Russia and Ukraine. Developments related to Iran’s nuclear program likely countered some of the geopolitical risk Energy – Iran Counters...