ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Yesterday's softer US May CPI data led to the usual pattern of stronger Treasuries and a weaker US dollar. However, this might be short-lived, given the numerous risk events over the next month....

The Sino-American trade negotiations in London have yielded plans to revive the flow of sensitive goods, but have failed to mark a breakthrough and leave the US dollar still vulnerable to domestic...

The Energy Information Administration expects US crude oil production to fall next year. Meanwhile, the European Commission is proposing a ban on refined product imports made from Russian crude...

FX volatility is edging lower, and in quiet markets, investors seem to be parking their cash in currencies with higher yields. This serves as a reminder that within the G10 space, the dollar remains...

Oil prices firmed as trade talks between the US and China appear to be moving in the right direction. Meanwhile, Iranian nuclear talks continue to face obstacles Energy – Trade Talk Optimism Supports...

Financial markets are leaning towards a glass-half-full view of the world right now. The MSCI world equity index is trading at all-time highs, and investors are scaling back expectations for the size...

Energy – US Drilling Activity Slows The oil market strengthened over the last week thanks to a variety of global events, with the ICE Brent Aug-25 contract settling almost 5.9% higher. Canadian...

A respectable jobs market in May with firm employment growth and stable unemployment, but the risks are skewed toward more weakness in coming months as trade uncertainty and concerns for consumer...

While markets look past the spat between Trump and Musk, attention is firmly on US jobs data. Softer expectations this week raise the stakes for a weak NFP print, which could pressure the Fed toward...

US Treasuries have stabilised. Global equity markets are performing well. But judging from the FX options market, investors are wary about another trade or bond flare-up in July. Today, the focus is...

In a social media post this morning, Trump said Xi Jinping is difficult to make a deal with, as markets await details on the scheduled call between the two leaders this week. There is some positive...

Central banks continued to buy gold in April, but at a slower pace given that prices are near record highs. Metals – Central Bank Gold Buying Slows in April Central banks added a net 12 tonnes of...

A strong drop in core inflation in May to 2.3% and headline to 1.9% serves as a clear sign that undershooting the inflation target is still a possibility for the ECB. Expect the ECB to lower the...

The US dollar is being hit by a combination of soft data (ISM manufacturing) and more bond market concerns. However, the risk premium is not far from the peaks seen in April, and soft data may not be...

The oil market surged higher yesterday, with ICE Brent hitting US$65.76/bbl at one stage, as USD weakness, rising geopolitical risks and possibly a supply hike from OPEC+ that fell short of...

A shift to a more confrontational stance on trade between the US and China, plus a focus on a potential US 'revenge tax' on foreign investors, are weighing on the US dollar. Softer jobs data this...