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James Picerno

www.CapitalSpectator.com
  • Analysis & Comment

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & comment.

Initial estimates of third-quarter economic activity indicate a downshift in output, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Although the current numbers don’t...
In a year of uncertainty about how tariff blowback will affect the economy, investors are favoring the relative safety of utilities in 2025. Using a set of ETFs as proxies shows that shares of...
President Trump’s new round of “reciprocal” tariffs kicks in today, a shift that focus attention anew on forecasts by many economists that the levies on imports will raise inflation, if only...
Markets are all in on predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the next policy meeting on Sep. 17. But there could be a wild card in the deck. A key macro question between now...
Judging by the headlines, it’s tempting to conclude that a US recession is imminent. Looking at a broad array of macro indicators, by contrast, still leaves room for debate. Moody’s Analytics chief...
The Bond Market Is Pricing in a Softer Economy
By James Picerno - Aug 04, 2025
The bond market looks increasingly focused on slowing economic growth vs. tariff inflation. The two risk factors have kept the US 10-year yield trading in a range in recent weeks as investors weighed...
President Trump on Thursday announced new tariffs on dozens of countries, marking a resumption of the trade-war policies that he originally outlined in April. Stocks fell around the world in reaction...
The US economy remains on track to post a moderate recovery in next week’s second-quarter GDP report, according to nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Meanwhile, new PMI survey data for July...
Global equities ex-US were already leading US stocks in 2025 by a wide margin ahead of the trade deal announced this week between the US and Japan. Following the news, shares in Japan surged,...
As reported yesterday at CapitalSpectator.com, the bond market is showing a degree of resiliency despite tariff-related inflation risk. Leading the resiliency this year: medium-term corporate bonds,...