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James Picerno

www.CapitalSpectator.com
  • Analysis & Comment

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & comment.

Every corner of the US bond market has rallied year to date, led by intermediate Treasuries, based on a set of ETFs through Wednesday’s close (June 18). Several risk factors are lurking for the...
The question resonates after President Trump publicly mused about what could be the most momentous decision of his presidency. Bound up with that decision are high-stakes repercussions that could...
Concerns about the US economy persist, but if there’s a slowdown brewing it’s unlikely to show up in the second-quarter GDP report. Revised nowcasts for the government’s Q2 report (due on July 30)...
In a year of shocks, turmoil, and tariffs, investor sentiment has been whipped to and fro as the crowd struggles to assess the outlook for risk and reward. But as 2025 approaches its mid-point,...
The Israel-Iran conflict continued for a fourth day as each country launched attacks on Monday. The fighting threatens to elevate oil prices for an extended period and bring a new phase of...
The market premium for the US Treasury yield remained mostly unchanged in May vs. a “fair value” estimate. As the 10-year yield continued to trade in a tight range last month, combined with virtually...
There are many indicators to monitor for reading the monetary policy tea leaves, each with its own distinctive set of pros and cons. Here’s one more that’s worth pondering: the unemployment...
Fed Policy Is Still on Hold, but for How Long?
By James Picerno - Jun 10, 2025
A lot of ink has been spilled on the economic and inflation outlook since President Trump shocked markets in April with a dramatic change in US trade policy. But while tariffs have increased and the...
Bitcoin remains a winning asset since President Trump’s tariff announced on Apr. 2 — “Liberation Day,” as he called it. In relative and absolute terms vs. the world’s primary markets, the...
US GDP Still on Track to Rebound in Q2
By James Picerno - Jun 06, 2025
Uncertainty and risk continue to weigh on the outlook for the economy, but the latest nowcasts for the government’s second-quarter GDP report (due on July 30) are still pointing to recovery after...