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James Picerno

  • Analysis & Comment

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & comment.

The monetary policy outlook has been uncertain, but primarily in terms of the timing of the first rate cut. But that’s starting to change as the Fed funds futures price in the possibility of a rate...
The old saw that markets climb a wall of worry is alive and kicking. Although there are plenty of warnings from analysts who see trouble ahead, trend profiles show no fear, via several pairs of ETF...
US economic activity is expected to post a modestly firmer increase in the second quarter, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. More than half of the...
Last week’s strong rally in commodities expanded the performance lead for the asset class over the rest of global markets, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (May 17). WisdomTree Enhanced...
A ‘fair-value’ estimate of the US 10-year Treasury yield was steady in April while the market level for the benchmark rate continued to rise well above the theoretical level. But trading activity...
Calling tops and bottoms in the stock market is the Holy Grail for investing analytics. Alas, success on this front is nearly impossible, at least in terms of timely precision. Yet some of us still...
US consumer inflation data was surprisingly firm in March, raising the stakes for tomorrow’s April report (Wed., May 15). Another round of disappointing numbers would arguably confirm that the recent...
April was a rough month for global markets, but commodities and stocks are still the performance leaders for the major asset classes this year, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (May...
Foreign fixed-income markets from a US investor perspective have been an unappealing asset class lately – with a glaring exception: corporate bonds in emerging markets. Year to date, this slice...
There are many ways to monitor recession risk, but any one indicator in isolation is flawed. Context in the form of reviewing a wide variety of metrics is essential for minimizing noise. But in the...