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James Picerno

www.CapitalSpectator.com
  • Analysis & Comment

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 2

There is no shortage of items to worry about for the bond market. From threats to strongarm the Federal Reserve to push interest rates lower to projections of a deepening federal budget deficit to...
The August 1 tariffs deadline that will raise prices for US imports is approaching, but market sentiment remains unaffected, based on set of proxy ETFs through Friday’s close (July 18). Following the...
The government’s second-quarter GDP report scheduled for later this month is still on track to post a moderate recovery in output, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by...
In a volatile year for stocks, as tariffs and other factors roil expectations and keep investors on edge, industrial stocks are the market darlings since the April rebound. Using a set of ETF...
The market premium for the US Treasury yield edged lower in June, based on analysis using a “fair value” estimate. But with inflation showing signs of heating up due to tariffs, economic conditions...
Judging by the headlines, there’s a lot to worry about. But if markets are anxious it’s not obvious in the year-to-date results for the major asset classes, which are posting across-the-board gains...
A single decision has been crucial for a global equities strategy this year: selecting the weights for foreign vs. US stocks. The higher the weight in shares outside the US, the higher the...
In a dizzying year of economic news, along with numerous twists and turns in financial markets, the performance leadership for the momentum factor stands out as a hardy perennial year to date. This...
There are numerous ways to predict economic and market outcomes, each with its own set of pros and cons. One of the more recent arrivals in the realm of trying to divine the future is the rise of...
Are Markets Underpricing the Next Tariff Shock?
By James Picerno - Jul 08, 2025
Economic activity appears set to strengthen in the official Q2 data, but the second half of the year looks relatively vulnerable. One factor is the possibility that the simmering trade war may heat...