James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 53
US economic activity looks strong or weak, depending on the data sets you choose to craft a narrative. That’s always true in some sense for the simple reason: there’s always some slice of...
The Global Market Index’s (GMI) expected long-run performance held at 6.0% annualized in February, unchanged from last month, based on the average estimate for three models (defined below)....
After starting the new year with roaring gains, global markets whimpered in February, posting across-the-board losses, based on a set of proxy ETFs.Although every corner of risk assets took a hit last...
The strong outperformance of high-beta stocks shows no sign of relinquishing leadership in the US equities market this year, based on a set of ETF proxies through Monday’s close (Feb....
Sellers took a toll on all the major asset classes last week, based on a set of ETF proxies.US junk bonds posted the softest setback in trading through Friday’s close (Feb. 24). Bloomberg...
The case for raising equity allocations when interest rates were close to zero was easy. After a year of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the calculus is more complicated.By some accounts,...
Cash is no longer trash, courtesy of sharply higher interest rates. Trailing yields on risky assets are looking up too.The source for the change in payout rates, of course, is a run of rate hikes by...
The economic rebound in the second half of 2022 looks challenged in early estimates for first quarter GDP, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.US output is on...
US consumer inflation continues to ease, but less so than expected in January. Yesterday’s update suggests that the Federal Reserve will see the latest numbers as a new sign that pricing...
Diversifying into global markets ex-US has been a frustrating choice for asset allocation for much of the past decade. Standard portfolio theory recommends holding an international mix of...