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James Picerno

www.CapitalSpectator.com
  • Analysis & Comment

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 50

The US economy expanded at a much slower rate than expected in the first quarter, a prelude to recession, according to some forecasters. It would be naïve to rule out the possibility in the...
There’s no shortage of things to worry about in the months ahead, but you wouldn’t know by reviewing year-to-date returns for the leading equity sectors. Tech and communications services...
Big-cap growth is back. After taking a back seat to various flavors of small-cap and value factors earlier in 2023, the large-company growth risk factor is again leading the horse race based on...
Forecasts of recession seem to be flowing from all corners these days. Still, this week’s initial estimate of economic activity for the first quarter (Apr. 27) is expected to show that growth...
US-listed real estate investment trusts (REITs) posted the strongest gain for the major asset classes in last week’s mostly quiet trading, based on a set of ETF proxies. A solid gain is welcome...
Nowcasting the business cycle isn’t getting any easier. Despite a firehose of data and an expanding list of analytical techniques, benchmarks, and related research at researchers’...
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and GOP leaders unveiled a bill that, in theory, temporarily solves the debt-ceiling crisis that’s brewing. In practice, the path ahead is probably no less...
In yesterday’s post, I profiled my thinking on the big-picture outlook for estimating the risk associated with the debt-ceiling battle that’s brewing in Washington. To round out this...
Is a U.S. Debt-Ceiling Crisis Approaching?
By James Picerno - Apr 18, 2023
The answer relies heavily, perhaps completely, on political calculations. In other words, trying to forecast how the tortured path ahead evolves is only a bit easier than trying to grab fish in a...
Is the long-running drought in relative returns for foreign stocks vs. American shares starting to fade? It’s getting easier to consider the possibility as developed-markets equities ex-US...