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James Picerno

www.CapitalSpectator.com
  • Analysis & Comment

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 51

The 10-year Treasury rate continues to trade well above CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value estimate, but the days of a large premium look numbered. As evidence mounts that inflation continues to...
The Consumer Price Index eased more than expected in March, providing fresh evidence that pricing pressure has peaked and inflation remains on track to decelerate further in the months ahead. The core...
Why the Bond Market Is Becoming More Volatile
By James Picerno - Apr 12, 2023
Last month we looked at how stock market volatility ebbs and flowsHow Monitoring Volatility Regimes Helps Anticipate Key Market Pivots through time. Let’s pick up this thread and do the same for...
Recession forecasts for the US continue to swirl, but the risk still looks low from the perspective of expectations for the first-quarter GDP report that’s scheduled for April 27, when the...
Assessing US recession risk isn’t getting any easier, but when it comes to cutting through the noise, I continue to rely on combining models for the single-best tool in the toolkit. To...
The expected long-run return for the Global Market Index (GMI) held steady at 6.0% annualized in March, unchanged from last month and close to its trailing performance over the past decade. The...
Most Asset Classes Rebound in March
By James Picerno - Apr 03, 2023
Asset classes made a comeback in March, led by inflation-indexed government bonds ex-US, based on a set of ETF proxies. The downside outlier: real estate shares in the US and around the world.The...
Yesterday’s post reviewed the mixed signals for US recession risk based on CapitalSpectator.com’s proprietary business-cycle indexes. Today’s follow-up will take a deeper look...
Despite warning signs flashing from several indicators, the U.S. economy is expected to report moderate growth in next month’s “advance” GDP report for the first quarter, based on a...
Forecasts that relative underperformers in the equities space are poised for a turnaround are a hardy perennial. Still, the expected change always seems to be postponed for several of the usual...