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James Picerno

  • Analysis & Comment

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 55

Several estimates of fourth-quarter economic activity for the US have turned higher recently. The improvements clash with ongoing recession forecasts, but for the upcoming Q4 report the outlook...
The Federal Reserve appears to be approaching the end of its rate-hiking policy, based on estimates from the bond market and economic conditions. But there’s a wild card that could derail the...
The expected long-run return for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in December, slipping below 6% annualized, based on the average forecast for three models. Today’s estimate is roughly...
Losses dominated market activity for the major asset classes in 2022. Commodities and cash are the exceptions. The rest of the field lost ground last year, in some cases by hefty degrees, based on a...
Investing in US stocks by way of risk factors has been a humbling experience this year. Short of a miraculous rally between now and Friday’s close, this realm of financial engineering is on...
The answer, of course, depends on how soon inflation shows convincing signs of behaving. There are hints that we’re now in the early phase of post-peak inflation. Today’s update on...
Inflation is easing, or so recent data shows. The debate is now centered on how fast and how far pricing pressure will slide — or if the recent easing is a head fake. In other words, it’s...
Inflation appears to be rolling over and markets are starting to consider the possibility that the Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy will soon start to ease. But the critical question of...
The nowcast offers a bright note amid swirling recession forecasts, but business-cycle indicators suggest that the Q4 GDP estimate will fade as new economic reports are published in the weeks...
Stocks in emerging markets extended their recent recovery and posted the strongest gain in a wide-ranging bounce for the major asset classes for the trading week through Friday, Dec. 2, based on a set...