Commodities, Bonds Position for Growth as US Stocks Search for Support

Published 01/04/2025, 12:14
Updated 01/04/2025, 13:22

Commodities led widespread rallies in March for the major asset classes based on a set of ETFs. US assets posted the only losses last month, with American shares leading on the downside.

The iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (NYSE:GSG) rose 2.6%, posting March’s strongest return. The second-best gain in global markets last month was foreign corporate bonds (PICB) with a 1.7% increase.

The losers in March were concentrated in US assets, led by a steep 5.9% drop in US equities (VTI). US real estate investment trusts (VNQ) and American junk bonds (JNK) also lost ground in March.

Year to date, stocks in developed markets ex-US are in the lead by a wide margin with a 6.8% return (VEA). Commodities (GSG) are in second place for 2025 with a 4.6% gain. US stocks (VTI) are posting the only loss so far in 2025 via a 4.8% decline.

GMI Total Returns

The Global Market Index (GMI) fell again in March, slumping 3.5%. Year to date, the index is down 1.2%. GMI is an unmanaged benchmark (maintained by CapitalSpectator.com) that holds all the major asset classes (except cash) in market-value weights via ETFs and represents a competitive benchmark for multi-asset-class portfolios.

Comparing GMI with US stocks (VTI) and US bonds (BND) over the trailing one-year window continues to reflect a middling performance for the multi-asset-class benchmark. Note that return differences have narrowed sharply in recent months following a period when US stocks outperformed by a wide margin.

GMI vs US Stock and Bond Markets

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