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Michael Kramer

Mott Capital Management
  • Analysis & Comment

Michael Kramer's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Michael Kramer's articles, including current analysis & comment.

Stocks finished flat, in a fairly uneventful Monday. It was the lightest volume day on the S&P 500 futures since July 3, a half-day. Just 821,000 contracts traded on Monday. There isn’t much...
Stocks finished Friday lower, and with OPEX now behind us, volatility should begin to expand again. VIX OPEX is on Wednesday, creating one more potential hurdle for the market. The VIX appears well...
Stocks finished Thursday flat, but it’s hard to gauge how much today’s OPEX influenced the S&P 500. The big gamma level appears to be around 6,450, which has been the lower end of the...
It feels like one of those moments when the anticipation becomes almost overwhelming — you just want the event to happen. For me, that moment arrives in a few days, as Treasury settlements...
The volatility crush on Tuesday was larger than I expected, especially since the VIX1D barely topped 16 on Monday. Still, it was enough to lift S&P 500 futures about 60 bps at the open, after...
Inflation Expectations on the Line as CPI Looms
By Michael Kramer - Aug 12, 2025
Today is a pivotal day for the market, with the CPI report due and a large Treasury settlement—the first of three this week. The CPI swaps market may prove most important, as inflation expectations...
For this week, we prep for the July CPI report, which could play a crucial role in shaping market expectations for inflation. Market-based measures, such as inflation swaps, currently project...
There will be three large Treasury settlements on Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday, with roughly $130 billion set to be drained from the overnight funding market. The reverse repo facility ended the...
The current market environment isn’t for the faint of heart. Significant drawdowns in the first quarter, followed by substantial rallies in the second, have created one of the most challenging...
The S&P 500 opened on Thursday about 60 basis points higher, but those gains quickly evaporated, and the market closed down roughly eight basis points. The key technical challenge emerging now is...