Nucor earnings beat by $0.08, revenue fell short of estimates
Cantor Fitzgerald maintained its neutral rating and $40.00 price target on Acadia Healthcare (NASDAQ:ACHC) Tuesday, as shares trade near $21.12, down nearly 47% over the past six months. According to InvestingPro data, the stock is currently trading near its 52-week low, suggesting potential value opportunity. The firm’s decision comes amid changes to provider tax regulations that could impact healthcare facilities operators.
The Senate has proposed lowering the provider tax cap to 3.5% from the current 6% in Medicaid expansion states, according to Cantor Fitzgerald. This reduction would be implemented gradually, with an initial decrease to 5.5% in 2027 before reaching the 3.5% target by 2031.
For non-expansion states, the proposal would freeze current provider tax rates at their existing levels. The Senate’s approach represents a more aggressive stance than what the House had previously considered.
Cantor Fitzgerald noted that the impact of these changes may be less severe than initial headlines suggest. The firm pointed out that 20 states already have provider tax limits of 3.5% or lower on hospitals, and the full implementation of the 3.5% cap would not occur until 2031.
The provider tax modifications could affect multiple healthcare facility operators beyond Acadia Healthcare, including Universal Health Services (NYSE:UHS), Tenet Healthcare (NYSE:THC), and HCA Healthcare (NYSE:HCA), according to the research note.
In other recent news, Acadia Healthcare reported its first-quarter results for 2025, with revenue reaching $770.5 million, closely matching the expected $769.9 million. Adjusted EBITDA was reported at $134.2 million, slightly surpassing the anticipated $132.1 million. Despite some challenges, such as $31 million in costs from government investigations, the company maintained its full-year guidance, projecting revenues between $3.3 billion and $3.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $675 million to $725 million. Meanwhile, RBC Capital Markets maintained its Outperform rating with a $43 price target, citing confidence in the company’s long-term growth strategy and revised expectations for earnings growth over the next few years.
Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated a Neutral rating and a $40 price target, pointing out the stability in Acadia Healthcare’s inpatient psychiatric segment and the company’s valuation. Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James also reaffirmed a strong buy rating with a $40 price target, acknowledging the company’s recent performance and the potential for improvement if legal issues are resolved. In contrast, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities lowered its price target to $32 while maintaining a Neutral stance, reflecting concerns over diminished patient volumes and ongoing federal investigations. Despite these challenges, Mizuho believes that demand for behavioral health services remains strong and anticipates a gradual recovery in patient volumes.
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