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On Wednesday, Stephens analysts initiated coverage on ACV Auctions Inc (NASDAQ:ACVA) stock, assigning an Equal Weight rating to the company's shares with a price target of $20.50.
The analysts view ACV Auctions as a speculative investment that exhibits both demonstrated and potential growth, with the stock showing impressive momentum through a 58.25% return over the past year.
According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for ACVA range from $18 to $28, reflecting mixed sentiment on the stock's potential. The analysts express caution, citing the competitive nature of the used car market which may not be fully recognized by the market in the current share price.
The price target reflects a valuation based on approximately 42 times the firm's projected EBITDA for 2025. With a current market capitalization of $3.73 billion and InvestingPro analysis indicating the stock is trading above its Fair Value, investors should note the company's high valuation multiples.
Stephens analysts suggest that while ACV Auctions' growth prospects are factored into its current share price, the challenges within the competitive landscape of the used car industry might not be fully appreciated by investors at present. For deeper insights into ACVA's valuation metrics and growth potential, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively on InvestingPro.
During an investor day event in June 2023, ACV Auctions outlined ambitious operational goals for 2026, including selling 1.5 million annual units and achieving $325 million in EBITDA. While the company has demonstrated strong revenue growth of 29.34% over the last twelve months, these targets appeared overly optimistic. Stephens now estimates ACV Auctions' EBITDA for 2024 to be around $30 million, with their 2027 projection being $264 million, which is 21% below the consensus estimates of $333 million.
The analysts further elaborate that if ACV Auctions were to reach $325 million in EBITDA, the current stock price of $22.25 would imply a 10x EBITDA multiple based on earnings achieved two years hence. They note that the market seems to be pricing in a near-certain probability that ACV Auctions will generate $325 million in EBITDA by either 2027 or 2028.
Stephens analysts, however, consider the competitive dynamics and uncertain operational environment as factors that make such high expectations unwarranted, a view supported by the company's current Financial Health Score of 2.18 (FAIR) on InvestingPro.
In other recent news, ACV Auctions Inc. reported a surge in earnings and revenue in the third quarter of 2024. The company's revenue climbed by 44% to a record $171 million, and vehicle sales saw a significant rise of 32% with 198,000 units sold. Adjusted EBITDA surpassed expectations, coming in at $11 million, exceeding guidance by 38%.
Needham analysts and Citi have both expressed confidence in ACV Auctions' growth trajectory, with Needham increasing the price target for ACV Auctions shares to $28 and Citi raising the stock's price target from $22.00 to $27.00, both firms maintaining a Buy rating on the stock.
ACV Auctions' new offerings, including ClearCar, ACV Max, and Self-Inspection, are gaining traction, particularly as Commercial Wholesale grows. Needham analysts predict that ACV Auctions will benefit from an expanding total addressable market as it moves into commercial auction supply. Despite potential seasonal dips and post-hurricane impacts, Citi remains confident in ACV Auctions' ability to increase transaction share and expand margins in the foreseeable future.
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