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On Monday, Canaccord Genuity analyst Whitney Ijem adjusted the price target on Arcturus Therapeutics (NASDAQ:ARCT) to $68 from $74, while maintaining a Buy rating on the company’s shares. The stock, currently trading near its 52-week low of $14.11, appears undervalued according to InvestingPro analysis. With analyst targets ranging from $44 to $140, the stock shows significant potential upside despite its volatile nature (Beta: 2.96). The revision follows Arcturus’s fourth quarter 2024 earnings report, which included positive updates on its pipeline with key programs on track. The new price target reflects updated expectations for the Japanese COVID vaccine market opportunity, based on guidance from Meiji that only 10 million people, half the anticipated number, will receive COVID vaccines this year.
Arcturus is expected to report a gross profit of approximately $15 million in the first quarter of 2025 and around $90 million for the 2024/2025 season. These profits are anticipated to help offset the development expenses of CSL (OTC:CSLLY). InvestingPro data reveals the company’s current market capitalization stands at $394.59 million, with a concerning gross profit margin of -28.13% over the last twelve months. For deeper insights into Arcturus’s financial health and growth prospects, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively to InvestingPro subscribers. The analyst noted that the company’s COVID revenue recognition is now expected to be pushed to late 2026 due to a shift in market tone for a sa-mRNA in Japan and management commentary on the reimbursement to CSL for Arcturus’s share of development costs.
In addition to the COVID vaccine updates, the company provided guidance on its rare disease pipeline. Arcturus continues to guide to data from its Cystic Fibrosis (CF) and Ornithine Transcarbamylase (OTC) deficiency programs in the second quarter of 2025. For the CF program, management has set expectations for the upcoming Phase 2 data release, targeting a +3% absolute improvement in FEV1, which would be sufficient to advance to a Phase 3 trial. The OTC program is also guiding to data from both the 0.3 mg/kg and 0.5 mg/kg cohorts in the next update.
Canaccord Genuity reaffirmed their Buy rating, emphasizing that both rare disease programs are underappreciated and could represent significant upside for Arcturus Therapeutics. The firm believes these programs are important valuation drivers for the company. While the company holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, InvestingPro analysis indicates it’s quickly burning through cash reserves. Subscribers can access 8 additional ProTips and over 30 financial metrics to make more informed investment decisions.
In other recent news, Arcturus Therapeutics reported a challenging fourth quarter of 2024, with earnings per share of -$1.11, significantly missing analyst estimates of -$0.19. The company’s revenue also fell short, coming in at $22.8 million against the forecasted $63.22 million. Despite these setbacks, Arcturus maintains a strong cash position with $293.9 million in cash and equivalents. Leerink Partners adjusted their price target for Arcturus from $70.00 to $65.00, while maintaining an Outperform rating, reflecting continued confidence in the company’s future performance.
BTIG analysts also maintained a Buy rating with a $48.00 price target, emphasizing optimism about Arcturus’ mRNA vaccine developments. Arcturus disclosed a gross profit share of $28 million for its Kostaive vaccine in Japan for Q4 2024, with further milestones anticipated in 2026 related to a Biologics License Application in the United States. The company is making progress in its cystic fibrosis and ornithine transcarbamylase deficiency programs, with Phase 2 data expected by mid-2025. These developments highlight Arcturus’ ongoing focus on expanding its therapeutic and vaccine pipelines, despite recent financial challenges.
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