Arthur J. Gallagher stock dips as TD Cowen reiterates Buy rating after Q3 miss

Published 31/10/2025, 15:12
Arthur J. Gallagher stock dips as TD Cowen reiterates Buy rating after Q3 miss

Investing.com - TD Cowen has reiterated its Buy rating and $388.00 price target on Arthur J. Gallagher (NYSE:AJG) following the company’s third-quarter earnings miss. The insurance broker’s shares currently trade at $245.21, significantly below TD Cowen’s target and down 6.66% over the past week.

The insurance broker reported lower-than-expected earnings per share for the third quarter of 2025, with TD Cowen noting a $0.22 impact from intra-quarter seasonality from accounts payable.

Brokerage organic growth came in at 4.5%, below TD Cowen’s 5.1% estimate, affected by one-time factors including 20 basis points from contingents and 30 basis points from life sales.

Despite the miss, Arthur J. Gallagher has provided guidance of 6%+ organic growth for full-year 2025 and 5% for the fourth quarter, indicating that growth at the "upper end of that [4-6%] spectrum" is sustainable in the current shallow pricing environment.

TD Cowen expects Arthur J. Gallagher shares to trade lower compared to peers on October 31 following the misses in both earnings per share and organic growth. InvestingPro data shows the stock is currently trading below its Fair Value and near its 52-week low, with RSI suggesting oversold territory. Discover more insights with InvestingPro, which offers 11 additional ProTips and a comprehensive Research Report for AJG.

In other recent news, Arthur J. Gallagher reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that did not meet analyst expectations. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $2.32, which was below the analyst consensus of $2.54, and revenue of $3.33 billion, falling short of the expected $3.44 billion. Following this, several financial firms have adjusted their price targets for Arthur J. Gallagher. Piper Sandler lowered its price target to $295, citing a rare miss against expectations. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods also reduced its price target to $275 and adjusted its future earnings estimates downward. Evercore ISI decreased its target to $353, describing the quarter as "mixed" with a miss on brokerage organic growth and core margin. Additionally, Goldman Sachs adjusted its price target to $315 after noting that the company’s second-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.32 missed the consensus expectations due to lower-than-expected seasonal EBITDAC from the AssuredPartners acquisition. Despite maintaining various ratings, these adjustments reflect a cautious outlook on the company’s recent performance.

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