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Investing.com - Wolfe Research has reiterated an Outperform rating and €800.00 price target on ASML Holding NV (AS:ASML) (NASDAQ:ASML), maintaining its positive outlook despite some adjustments to future projections.
The firm notes that while ASML’s third-quarter guidance was slightly below expectations, the company maintained its full-year guidance for 2025, which projects 15% year-over-year growth in line with consensus estimates. ASML lowered its EUV unit and revenue assumptions for 2025, but this reduction was offset by higher upgrades in installed base revenue and a mix shift toward the higher-priced 3800 model.
Wolfe Research has trimmed its 2026 revenue forecast from €36.8 billion to €34.1 billion and reduced EPS projections from €28.95 to €25.75, citing increased customer uncertainty related to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. The firm specifically mentioned China AI restrictions as an example of rapidly changing conditions that have affected customer outlook over the past 90 days.
Despite these adjustments, Wolfe Research remains bullish on ASML’s fundamentals heading into next year, expecting continued spending from TSMC to support both N2 and AI growth. The firm also anticipates DRAM capacity growth to support the 2027 demand inflection in HBM, while projecting flat spending from China and considering Intel (NASDAQ:INTC)’s spending as already derisked.
According to Wolfe Research, ASML’s valuation remains reasonable at approximately 24 times the revised 2026 EPS estimate, which is in line with peers and represents a significant discount to ASML’s five-year average multiple of approximately 31 times.
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