Baird cuts Portillo’s stock rating, lowers price target to $12

Published 07/04/2025, 08:16
Baird cuts Portillo’s stock rating, lowers price target to $12

On Monday, Baird analyst David Tarantino issued a downgrade for Portillo’s, Inc (NASDAQ:PTLO) stock, moving the rating from Outperform to Neutral. Alongside this adjustment, the price target was also reduced from $15.00 to $12.00. The revision reflects a more conservative stance on the company’s near-term valuation assumptions. Trading at a P/E ratio of 26.8x and with a market capitalization of $720 million, InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently undervalued relative to its Fair Value.

Tarantino’s decision comes with a cautionary view on the potential risks to near-term estimates for Portillo’s. The analyst pointed out that achieving the current consensus projections would require a significant improvement in same-store traffic, a trend that has not been evident in recent performance. The company’s revenue growth of 4.5% in the last twelve months and YTD price return of 20% paint a mixed picture. Moreover, there is now less certainty that these improvements will materialize.

While acknowledging the risks, the Baird analyst also recognized the company’s potential, noting that valuation metrics for Portillo’s could still be appealing for long-term investors. He highlighted the company’s prospects for unit growth, suggesting an open-ended opportunity in this area. InvestingPro data reveals the company maintains profitability with a gross margin of 23.7%, though its current ratio of 0.39 suggests tight liquidity. For deeper insights into Portillo’s financial health and growth prospects, investors can access comprehensive analysis and additional ProTips through InvestingPro’s detailed research reports.

However, the analyst warned of the possibility that a slowing economy could trigger a cycle of downward estimate revisions. Such a scenario could hinder the stock’s ability to outperform in the near term, leading to the decision to downgrade the rating and lower the price target.

Portillo’s shares are currently facing a critical period, where the company’s ability to drive traffic to its stores and meet projections is uncertain. Baird’s revised outlook signals caution to investors, emphasizing the need to weigh the potential for growth against the economic headwinds that could impact performance.

In other recent news, Portillo’s Inc. reported its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, significantly exceeding analysts’ expectations with an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.17, compared to the forecasted $0.02. The company’s revenue for the quarter was $184.6 million, slightly below the expected $184.73 million. Despite the minor revenue miss, the strong EPS performance reflects Portillo’s resilience in a challenging market. Stephens has raised the price target for Portillo’s to $14 from the previous $13, while maintaining an Equal Weight rating, following the company’s confirmation of its fiscal year 2025 guidance. This guidance indicates some challenges in long-term growth projections due to macroeconomic factors affecting comparable store sales. Portillo’s plans to open 12 new restaurants in 2025 and is exploring new formats to expand its market presence. The company is also introducing self-service kiosks and a customer loyalty program as part of its strategic initiatives. Despite these efforts, Stephens emphasizes the importance of Portillo’s maintaining consistent execution on same-store sales throughout fiscal year 2025.

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