Bajaj Auto stock rating downgraded to Neutral by BofA on market share concerns

Published 07/08/2025, 09:44
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Investing.com - BofA Securities downgraded Bajaj Auto (NSE:BAJA) Ltd (NS:BJAUT) from Buy to Neutral and lowered its price target to INR8,850.00 from INR9,750.00, citing domestic market share concerns despite strong export performance.

The downgrade follows Bajaj Auto’s Q1 operating earnings, which were in line with expectations, showing EBITDA growth of 3% year-over-year and EBITDA margin at 19.7%, down 50 basis points quarter-over-quarter due to flat volume growth and foreign exchange headwinds.

BofA Securities revised down its estimates by 1-2% for fiscal years 2026-2027, primarily due to domestic volume cuts, while lowering the target multiple to 23x FY27 PE from 25x, representing a 20% discount to peers.

The company expects margins to normalize back to over 20% in Q2, with guidance for FY26 growth remaining similar to Q4, including 5-6% volume growth for the domestic two-wheeler industry and export momentum sustaining high-teen growth in volumes.

Bajaj Auto has encountered rare earth material shortage issues, which the company reports will impact 50% of electric two-wheeler production and 25% of electric three-wheeler production in Q2, a disruption BofA notes appears more severe than what peers are experiencing.

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