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On Tuesday, Barclays (LON:BARC) analysts downgraded ASML Holding NV (AS:ASML) stock from Overweight to Equalweight. The rating change comes as the analysts revised their price target to €650 from €770, citing limited positive catalysts and potential downside risks to the 2026 consensus. According to InvestingPro data, ASML currently trades at $746.53 with a P/E ratio of 29.19, reflecting premium valuation metrics that align with Barclays’ cautious stance.
The analysts expressed concerns about muted growth prospects for ASML in the near term. They noted that positive surprises, such as Samsung (KS:005930) or Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) restarting significant spending, are unlikely to occur before 2027, if at all. Additionally, they highlighted that customer efficiency is minimizing tool requirements, which could affect ASML’s growth perception. Despite these concerns, InvestingPro data shows ASML maintains strong fundamentals with 17.67% revenue growth and a prominent position in the semiconductor industry. For deeper insights into ASML’s valuation and growth prospects, investors can access comprehensive Pro Research Reports on InvestingPro.
Barclays also pointed out potential delays in the adoption of high numerical aperture (NA) technology, which could impact ASML’s growth outlook. Despite these challenges, the analysts remain optimistic about ASML’s long-term prospects, projecting a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from 2026 to 2030.
The downgrade reflects Barclays’ view that while ASML’s long-term outlook remains positive, growth could be volatile in the coming years. The analysts emphasized the importance of monitoring developments in customer spending and technology adoption for future growth trajectories.
In other recent news, ASML Holding NV reported its first-quarter 2025 revenue at €7.74 billion, slightly below market expectations, with a gross margin of 54.0%. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) surpassed forecasts at €6.00, compared to the consensus estimate of €5.74. Despite a significant decline in bookings, particularly for Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, ASML reaffirmed its revenue guidance for 2025, aiming for €30-€35 billion. Analysts from TD Cowen, Evercore ISI, and Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James maintained positive ratings on the stock, citing ASML’s strong market position and potential growth drivers like AI demand and semiconductor technology advancements.
However, Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) analysts lowered their price targets to $840 and EUR700, respectively, due to concerns over U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions affecting ASML’s operations. The company’s sales in China, accounting for 27% of total system sales, remained stable, although there is a projected year-over-year decline for 2025. Despite these challenges, ASML’s management remains optimistic about future growth, with particular confidence in 2026. Analysts also noted that ASML’s price-to-earnings ratio has compressed significantly, suggesting potential value for investors amid current market uncertainties.
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