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On Tuesday, Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH) stock, currently trading at $47.94, was downgraded by Barclays (LON:BARC) from Overweight to Underweight, with a revised price target set at $40, down from $51. The adjustment reflects concerns about the future demand for the company’s products in the residential solar market. According to InvestingPro data, 23 analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates downward, with price targets ranging from $33 to $125.
Stifel analysts point to potential regulatory changes as a key factor influencing the downgrade. They predict that if Section 25D is repealed as expected next year, more than 90% of the residential solar market will transition to a third-party ownership (TPO) model. Enphase Energy, having been more successful in the non-TPO market, may see a decrease in demand for its offerings starting in 2026. The company’s stock has already experienced significant pressure, with InvestingPro data showing a 56.73% decline over the past year, despite maintaining a strong gross profit margin of 36.85%.
The anticipated shift in the residential solar market structure is significant because it suggests a change in how consumers will invest in solar energy. The TPO model allows homeowners to have solar panels installed on their property without purchasing the equipment, thereby reducing upfront costs. Instead, a third party owns the solar system, and the homeowner typically pays for the electricity it generates, often at a lower rate than the local utility.
Enphase Energy’s current market position is largely attributed to its performance in the non-TPO sector, where customers own their solar systems outright. The potential repeal of Section 25D, which currently provides tax credits for solar energy systems, could alter consumer preferences and, subsequently, the company’s sales outlook.
Barclays’ revised price target of $40 for Enphase Energy reflects the anticipated impact of these market changes on the company’s financial performance. The downgrade serves as a cautionary signal to investors about the challenges Enphase may face in adapting to a predominantly TPO market. Based on InvestingPro’s comprehensive analysis, the stock appears overvalued at current levels. Investors seeking deeper insights can access the full Pro Research Report, which provides detailed analysis of Enphase’s financial health, market position, and growth prospects among 1,400+ top US stocks.
In other recent news, First Solar Inc (NASDAQ:FSLR). is facing a revised outlook from Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), which has cut its stock rating due to concerns over increased solar cell capacity in the United States. Analysts at Wells Fargo noted a 37% rise in expected cell capacity by the end of 2026, which they believe could negatively impact First Solar’s margins. The firm also pointed out delays in project timelines and adjustments in solar module capacity forecasts. In contrast, Enphase Energy, Inc. has begun shipping its IQ8™ Microinverters to Japan, partnering with ITOCHU Corporation to meet Tokyo’s new solar mandate for homes. Despite this expansion, Enphase Energy is encountering challenges, as TD Cowen, RBC Capital Markets, and BMO Capital Markets have all lowered their price targets for the company. These adjustments are largely due to tariff impacts on Enphase’s gross margins and a less optimistic short-term financial outlook. Enphase aims to mitigate these challenges by sourcing battery cells outside of China and launching new products, such as the IQ10C battery and IQ9, in 2025. Both companies are navigating complex market dynamics as they adapt to changing industry conditions and regulatory landscapes.
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