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On Tuesday, Barclays (LON:BARC) analyst Betty Jiang issued an updated rating for Expand Energy (NASDAQ:EXE), elevating the stock from Equalweight to Overweight and increasing the price target to $122 from the previous $115. This upgrade adds to the growing bullish sentiment, with InvestingPro data showing 13 analysts recently revising their earnings estimates upward. The stock, currently trading at $102.92, has analyst targets ranging from $100 to $170, suggesting significant potential upside. Jiang’s optimism stems from the anticipation of a gas supply deficit exceeding 2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) by 2026, which suggests a bullish outlook for natural gas prices. With a market capitalization of $23.95 billion and a defensive beta of 0.43, Expand Energy appears positioned to benefit from these market dynamics. According to InvestingPro’s comprehensive analysis, the company shows strong momentum despite trading slightly above its Fair Value.
In her analysis, Jiang notes that despite recent outperformance, dry gas exploration and production companies could be considered a relative safe haven within the energy sector, pending further clarity on natural gas liquids (NGL) macro factors. She points out that, even in the event of an economic downturn, the structural demand for U.S. gas is expected to remain robust, supported by liquefied natural gas (LNG) and power sector growth.
The analyst highlights that prior to any tariff increases, the U.S. gas market was already projected to have a tight balance by 2026. The combination of disciplined production, lower oil prices, and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty could potentially exacerbate the challenge of meeting gas supply growth, especially as LNG exports are set to expand rapidly. InvestingPro analysis reveals the company’s strong potential, with analysts forecasting significant sales growth and profitability this year. Discover 8 additional exclusive ProTips and detailed financial metrics with an InvestingPro subscription, including the comprehensive Pro Research Report available for this and 1,400+ other US stocks.
Jiang acknowledges the possibility of demand deterioration in a slowing economy but believes that the forecasted supply deficit in 2026—and potentially 2027—would mitigate such risks. This perspective supports Barclays’ view that there is more potential for an increase rather than a decrease in their $4 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) gas price forecast over the next 12 to 18 months. This outlook contrasts with the uncertainties surrounding oil and NGL prices, which are influenced by factors such as OPEC decisions, trade dynamics, and global demand fluctuations.
In other recent news, Expand Energy’s financial performance and strategic outlook have garnered attention from several analyst firms. UBS reiterated a Buy rating for the company, maintaining a price target of $131, with expectations of positive first-quarter results and strategic growth in natural gas volumes. TD Cowen upgraded Expand Energy from Hold to Buy, raising the price target to $116, citing improved risk/reward dynamics in the natural gas sector following recent tariff announcements. Benchmark analysts also raised their price target to $112, driven by stronger-than-expected gas volumes and improved earnings projections, with first-quarter EPS and EBITDA estimates exceeding consensus expectations.
Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities increased their price target for Expand Energy to $136, reflecting an anticipated surpassing of first-quarter consensus estimates for EBITDA and cash flow per share. The firm highlighted the company’s strategic deployment of productive capacity and potential growth in production volumes. Expand Energy’s financial management, including dividend payments and debt reduction, is expected to enhance its financial position, according to UBS. Analysts at Benchmark and Mizuho both anticipate that the company’s operational strategies and favorable market conditions will lead to robust performance metrics.
These recent developments underscore the confidence that various analysts have in Expand Energy’s ability to navigate the evolving natural gas market. With several firms upgrading their ratings and adjusting price targets, the company’s strategic initiatives and financial health remain focal points for investors. As the company prepares to release its official earnings, these projections and analyst insights will be closely monitored by market participants.
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