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On Tuesday, Barclays (LON:BARC) upgraded HSBC Holdings (NYSE:HSBC) stock, moving its rating from Equalweight to Overweight, and raised the price target significantly to £12.00, up from the previous target of £9.40. This adjustment reflects a positive outlook based on anticipated improvements in the bank’s earnings and cost efficiencies. The upgrade comes as HSBC, currently trading at $60.33, has demonstrated remarkable momentum with a 71.41% return over the past year and maintains a "GREAT" overall Financial Health Score according to InvestingPro.
The upgrade by Barclays analysts comes after a detailed evaluation of HSBC’s future earnings potential. They have increased the estimated earnings per share (EPS) for the valuation year 2027 by 13%, citing a combination of better revenues and lower costs. This reassessment is partly due to HSBC’s recent strategic update, which confirmed the bank’s cost plans. With a current P/E ratio of 9.61x and an attractive dividend yield of 11.9%, HSBC stands out among its banking peers.
The analysts have also adjusted the cost of equity (COE) down to 12%, which has contributed to the decision to lift the price target for HSBC stock. According to Barclays, the revised estimates suggest that HSBC shares are currently trading at 1.25 times the 2025 tangible net asset value (TNAV), or 1.1 times forward, which they consider attractive given the bank’s expected return on tangible equity (RoTE) of over 17% by 2027.
Furthermore, the new price target implies that HSBC shares would trade at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 8.5 times the estimated 2027 earnings, which is significantly lower than HSBC’s historical average PE multiple of around 12 times. This comparison indicates that HSBC stock is undervalued according to Barclays’ analysis.
The Barclays analysts’ commentary emphasizes that the upgraded rating and increased price target are based on a robust financial outlook for HSBC, with the bank’s strategic initiatives expected to yield positive results over the next few years. The assessment points to a strong investment case for HSBC, as it appears well-positioned for future growth and profitability.
In other recent news, HSBC Holdings has demonstrated a robust financial performance, with its profit before tax for 2024 increasing by $1.4 billion to reach $31.1 billion, driven by growth in its Wealth & Personal Banking and Global Banking & Markets divisions. The bank has also announced an elevated dividend for 2024 at $0.87 per share, up from $0.61 in 2023, and plans a $2 billion share buyback program. CFRA analyst Firdaus Ibrahim raised HSBC’s price target to $69, maintaining a Buy rating, citing the bank’s strong return on equity and strategic actions aimed at cost reductions and capital reallocation. Citi has reaffirmed its Buy rating with a price target of GBP9.60, expressing confidence in HSBC’s potential for earnings growth despite some market concerns.
Barclays adjusted its price target for HSBC to GBP9.40, maintaining an Equalweight rating, and noted potential upside risks to the bank’s earnings. Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) downgraded HSBC from Buy to Hold, while raising the price target to GBP9.10, pointing to the bank’s solid financial performance but reduced stock attractiveness due to recent price increases. Additionally, Citi analysts suggested that HSBC’s potential exit from European and US equity capital markets and M&A activities might lead to cost savings, aligning with a Bloomberg report hinting at a $3 billion expense reduction. These strategic shifts are expected to have minimal impact on HSBC’s overall revenue and may coincide with the bank’s upcoming fourth-quarter results.
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