Barclays warns ITW, GTES stocks may suffer from auto tariffs

Published 27/03/2025, 15:28
Barclays warns ITW, GTES stocks may suffer from auto tariffs

On Thursday, Barclays (LON:BARC) highlighted several companies that could face challenges due to the potential imposition of auto tariffs. According to the firm, the automotive original equipment (OE) and component suppliers might experience negative volume impacts as manufacturers may reduce the production of less profitable vehicles. This situation arises from the fact that original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) already operate with relatively low margins. The companies expected to be most affected, in descending order, include Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE:ITW), Gates Industrial Corporation plc (NYSE:GTES), 3M Company (NYSE:MMM), Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (NYSE:SWK), Eaton Corporation plc (NYSE:ETN), and Parker-Hannifin Corporation (NYSE:PH).

Barclays analysts also foresee near to medium-term effects on auto OE suppliers, as OEMs’ financial positions are likely to be strained by tariffs. This strain could result in OEMs exerting pressure on their suppliers for price reductions, given the highly consolidated customer base for U.S. market incumbents (MI). Additionally, there might be short-term negative impacts on automotive capital expenditures and production equipment due to OEMs’ weakened financial positions and the current uncertainty in policy environments. This could lead to a "wait and see" approach regarding capital expenditures. Rockwell Automation, Inc. (NYSE:ROK) and Kennametal Inc. (NYSE:KMT) are identified as likely to be the most impacted by these developments. For investors seeking deeper insights, InvestingPro reveals that Parker-Hannifin maintains a "GREAT" financial health score, with strong profitability metrics and a moderate debt level, suggesting resilience during market uncertainties.

However, Barclays also notes the possibility of a long-term positive effect on U.S. domestic automotive capital expenditures. The tariffs aim to ensure the sustainability of the U.S. industrial base, which could lead to a resurgence in domestic manufacturing—a topic that has seen various periods of intense interest over past decades. Despite previous waves of focus on U.S. reshoring and manufacturing renaissance, the expected benefits have not fully materialized, except in Mexico, as discussed in Barclays’ 2024 report on the subject.

Lastly, the firm does not anticipate a significant impact on automotive aftermarket (AM) or repair demand in the near term. Consumer behaviors, such as miles driven, are expected to remain unchanged. Gates Industrial Corporation plc (NYSE:GTES), Vontier Corporation (NYSE:VNT), and Dover Corporation (NYSE:DOV) are particularly relevant in this aspect of the market.

In other recent news, Parker-Hannifin Corporation has completed the issuance of €700 million in senior notes, which will be used to repay existing debt maturing in 2025. The notes, due in 2030, carry an annual interest rate of 2.900%. Moody’s Ratings upgraded Parker-Hannifin’s senior unsecured ratings to A3, reflecting the company’s strong credit metrics and market strategy, which includes growth through acquisitions. Additionally, Citi analysts initiated coverage of Parker-Hannifin with a Buy rating and a $795 price target, citing the company’s strategic portfolio transformation and expected mid-single-digit organic growth through fiscal 2027.

Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities reiterated its Outperform rating for Parker-Hannifin, maintaining a price target of $715, despite softness in the industrial sector. The analyst noted positive order growth driven by longer-cycle businesses, particularly in Aerospace. Meanwhile, Stifel analysts maintained a Hold rating with a $691 price target, highlighting the stock’s correlation with global economic indicators like the Purchasing Managers’ Index. Parker-Hannifin’s ongoing strategic initiatives, including its Win Strategy 3.0, are expected to drive significant margin expansion and earnings growth, according to Citi.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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