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On Monday, Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey updated his outlook on Nintendo Co Ltd (TYO:7974:JP) (OTC: NTDOY (OTC:NTDOY)), raising the price target to JPY 13,000 from JPY 11,800, while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. The adjustment comes despite Nintendo’s report of a significant decline in fiscal 2025 results, with net sales dropping by 30.3% to ¥1.16 trillion and operating profit falling by 46.6% to ¥282.5 billion. The company’s stock has shown remarkable resilience, posting a 52% gain over the past six months, though InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently trading above its Fair Value.
The company’s performance was attributed to a normalization of its software slate, which did not match the previous year’s success driven by major titles such as "The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (TADAWUL:4280)." Hardware sales saw a decrease of 31.2% to 10.8 million units, and software sales were down 22.2% to 155.4 million units. Nonetheless, Nintendo still managed to produce 24 million-seller titles, maintaining strong platform engagement. InvestingPro data reveals the company maintains robust financial health with a current ratio of 4.61 and more cash than debt on its balance sheet.
Digital sales declined by 26.5% but represented an increased proportion of total software sales, rising to 53.5%. Despite the downturn in sales, Nintendo’s management has set an ambitious target for fiscal 2026, forecasting a 63.1% increase in top-line growth. This growth is expected to be driven by the launch of the Nintendo Switch 2, with projected hardware sales of 15 million units and software sales of 45 million units. The company plans to bolster these figures with new bundled offerings and a refreshed software slate.
The forecast also accounts for the impact of tariffs, which are expected to continue exerting pressure on margins due to a higher mix of hardware sales. Nintendo’s strategy reflects a forward-looking approach to recapture growth momentum in the coming fiscal year.
In other recent news, Nintendo has announced that the highly anticipated Nintendo Switch 2 console will launch on June 5, 2025. However, the company has temporarily halted preorders for the console in the United States due to newly imposed tariffs on Japanese imports by President Donald Trump. The Switch 2, priced at $449.99, was expected to begin preorders soon, but Nintendo is reassessing its sales strategy in light of the 24% tariff. Despite this, the launch date remains unchanged, and the company has promised further updates on preorder availability. In a separate development, Citi has initiated coverage on Nintendo with a Buy rating and a price target of JPY14,000. Citi’s analysis points to the potential profit growth from the Switch 2 and a possible more affordable version, the Switch Lite 2, as well as a strong software lineup. The firm suggests that these factors could positively impact Nintendo’s financial performance, even though current stock valuations may not fully reflect this potential. Investors are keenly observing these developments as Nintendo navigates these challenges.
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