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Investing.com - Berenberg has downgraded BASF SE (ETR:BAS) (OTC:BASFY) from Hold to Sell and reduced its price target to EUR37.00 from EUR44.00, citing persistent macroeconomic challenges.
The German chemical giant faces a situation where "adverse macro" conditions are making effective portfolio management "largely ineffectual in driving up the share price," according to Berenberg’s analysis.
The market’s subdued reaction to BASF’s October 10 announcement regarding the divestment of its automotive coatings and surface treatment business suggests the company’s multi-year share price floor of approximately EUR40 may be breaking down.
Berenberg points to significant discrepancies between expectations and likely outcomes, noting that while 2025 consensus EBITDA estimates were previously over EUR12 billion, the actual figure will likely be closer to EUR7 billion.
Additional headwinds include disappointing German industrial production, persistent overcapacity in China that China’s next five-year plan in March 2026 is unlikely to address, and consensus earnings estimates that Berenberg believes are too optimistic.
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