Berenberg downgrades Ferguson stock rating after share price surge

Published 05/06/2025, 07:52
Berenberg downgrades Ferguson stock rating after share price surge

On Thursday, Berenberg analysts downgraded Ferguson Plc. (NYSE: FERG) stock rating to Hold from Buy. This decision follows a notable increase in the company’s share price, which has surged 18% in the past week and 25% year-to-date. According to InvestingPro data, the stock’s RSI indicates overbought territory, supporting Berenberg’s cautious stance.

The analysts have also raised their price target for Ferguson stock to $215 from $200, reflecting an increase in their fiscal year 2025 earnings per share forecasts by 4%. The company maintains strong fundamentals with a current ratio of 1.64 and operates with moderate debt levels. Despite the positive third-quarter results, which exceeded expectations in organic volumes, prices, and margins, the analysts believe the stock is now trading at fair value.

Ferguson’s third-quarter performance has been described as a potential turning point, providing a promising outlook for the upcoming year. The company is seen as having a strong multi-year growth opportunity, driven by market share gains and strategic acquisitions.

However, the recent rally in Ferguson’s share price, which now trades at 24 times the current year’s EPS, has led the Berenberg analysts to conclude there is limited upside potential in the near term. This evaluation has prompted the downgrade to Hold.

In other recent news, Ferguson Plc reported its fiscal third-quarter earnings for 2025, showing a mixed performance against market expectations. The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.50, falling short of the projected $2.61, while revenue reached $7.62 billion, missing the anticipated $7.79 billion. Despite these misses, the company experienced a 4.3% year-over-year increase in sales, driven by strong performances in the HVAC and Waterworks sectors. Analysts from UBS, RBC Capital, and Truist Securities have recently adjusted their price targets for Ferguson, citing various reasons including the company’s financial performance and future prospects. UBS raised its price target to $204 while maintaining a Neutral rating, whereas RBC Capital increased its target to $231 with an Outperform rating. Truist Securities set a new target of $240, maintaining a Buy rating. These adjustments reflect analysts’ confidence in Ferguson’s strategic initiatives and market positioning. Ferguson’s full-year guidance has been updated to anticipate low to mid-single-digit revenue growth, with an operating margin range of 8.5% to 9%. The company plans significant capital expenditures and expects an effective tax rate of approximately 26%.

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