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Investing.com - Berenberg downgraded K+S AG (ETR:SDF) (OTC:KPLUY) from Buy to Sell on Wednesday, while significantly reducing its price target to EUR11.00 from EUR17.00. The $2.6 billion market cap company has shown strong performance this year with a 39.3% YTD return, according to InvestingPro data.
The downgrade reflects Berenberg’s concerns about the potash market outlook, particularly from 2026 onward. The firm previously maintained a Buy rating based on expectations of a tight potash market supporting prices and boosting earnings. InvestingPro data shows that multiple analysts have revised their earnings downward for the upcoming period, though the company maintains strong liquidity with a current ratio of 3.72.
Berenberg now anticipates broadly lower prices for agricultural commodities starting in 2026. While higher U.S. corn acreages of 95 million may temporarily boost potash demand, the firm believes increased corn production could eventually push agricultural commodity prices down more broadly. Discover more valuable insights and 8 additional ProTips for K+S AG with an InvestingPro subscription, including detailed Fair Value analysis and comprehensive financial health scores.
The research note also cited concerns about upcoming supply increases, including the potential "drip-feed" of Laotian potash capacity and BHP’s Jansen mine, which is expected to begin production in 2027.
Based on these factors, Berenberg considers the consensus 2026 EBITDA estimates for K+S "modestly too high" and views 2027 projections as "heavily overoptimistic."
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