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On Wednesday, Berenberg initiated coverage on shares of Brown Forman (NYSE:BFb) (NYSE:BF-B), assigning a Hold rating with a price target of $37.50. The spirits company, known for brands such as Jack Daniel’s and Woodford Reserve, has seen a significant decline in share value over the past two years, with approximately a 45% drop. This performance contrasts with the company’s historical trading pattern, where it enjoyed a substantial premium compared to the broader spirits sector and consumer staples.
From 2015 to 2023, Brown Forman’s return on invested capital (ROIC) and growth rates outpaced its peers, with a 6.2% top-line growth compared to the average of 5.0% among competitors. During this period, the company’s enterprise value to earnings before interest and taxes (EV/EBIT) ratio averaged 25.2x. However, post-tariff impacts have led to a reduction in this ratio to 17.6x for the fiscal year 2026 estimates (FY26E) ending in April, or 14.2x when excluding tariffs.
The analyst’s commentary suggests that the current valuation could present an attractive opportunity for investors if the uncertainties regarding tariffs are resolved. The optimism is partly due to the potential for Jack Daniel’s expansion in international markets and the growth trajectory of Woodford Reserve. The analyst’s stance indicates that the pessimistic view of growth not returning to previous levels may be unwarranted given these factors.
Brown Forman’s stock rating and price target reflect a cautious optimism, balancing the past performance with future prospects amid the current market conditions. The company’s future performance will likely be influenced by how it navigates the tariff landscape and capitalizes on its international market opportunities.
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