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On Wednesday, Bernstein SocGen Group revised its price target on Hermes International (OTC:HESAF) (RMS:FP) (OTC: HESAY (OTC:HESAY)) stock, reducing it from €2,850.00 to €2,600.00. Despite the reduction, the firm maintained its Outperform rating on the luxury goods company. The adjustment follows a reevaluation of growth forecasts and margin expectations based on the latest annual report from Hermes. According to InvestingPro data, the stock is currently trading at $245.80, with analyst targets ranging between $310-$315, suggesting potential upside despite recent price pressure.
Analyst Luca Solca of Bernstein SocGen Group cited a decrease in the Group Organic Sales Growth (OSG) percentage forecasts for fiscal year 2025 by 370 basis points, down to 9.8%. The Leather Goods OSG percentage is anticipated to decline by 350 basis points to 11.5%, with other divisions expected to experience even greater reductions. The revised outlook reflects an acknowledgment that Hermes may not be entirely shielded from a slowdown in consumer demand. InvestingPro analysis shows the company maintains impressive gross profit margins of 70.26% and has achieved a 17% revenue CAGR over the past five years.
Despite these adjustments, the analyst expects that Hermes will continue to see organic growth, bolstered by pricing increases and supply/volume growth of 6-7%, particularly in the Leather Goods division where Hermes has significant pricing leverage. The updated earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for Hermes are now 7% and 3% below the consensus for fiscal years 2025 and 2026, respectively. InvestingPro's comprehensive analysis reveals strong financial health metrics, with a return on equity of 28% and robust cash flows that easily cover debt obligations. For deeper insights into Hermes' financial health and growth prospects, investors can access the detailed Pro Research Report, available exclusively to InvestingPro subscribers.
Bernstein's valuation of Hermes is based on a target relative price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 3.70 times that of the MSCI Europe index. This translates to a 51 times P/E multiple, which is five turns above the ten-year average of 46 times and three turns above the current trading level. Solca's commentary highlights Hermes' capacity to maintain a strong EBIT margin of 40.5%, in line with the figures reported in the company's annual report.
The Outperform rating indicates that Bernstein SocGen Group continues to view Hermes stock favorably, despite the revised price target and the potential challenges facing the luxury goods market.
In other recent news, Hermes International's financial outlook has been updated by Bernstein SocGen Group, resulting in a raised stock price target from EUR2,450.00 to EUR2,850.00. Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating on Hermes, reflecting a positive outlook on the luxury goods company. The firm's analysis suggests that Hermes is expected to achieve organic growth of 13.5% in fiscal year 2025, driven by price and volume increases in its leather goods category. Despite a slight decrease in the EBIT margin forecast for fiscal year 2025, margins are projected to improve in subsequent years as foreign exchange and cost inflation pressures ease. Bernstein forecasts earnings per share of €46.26 for fiscal year 2025 and €56.13 for fiscal year 2026, with the latter exceeding consensus estimates by 2.9%. Additionally, Hermes's revenue growth is expected to benefit from strategic price adjustments in Europe, Japan, and China. The anticipated pricing tailwinds for fiscal year 2025 are estimated at around 7%, positioning Hermes ahead of many competitors. Bernstein's analysts noted their previous downgrade of Hermes after the Covid-19 pandemic was premature, acknowledging the company's strong resilience and performance in the luxury sector.
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