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Tuesday, Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) shares faced a new price target set by Bernstein SocGen Group, dropping to $39.00 from the previous $45.00, while the firm retained a Market Perform rating for the biotechnology company. The adjustment comes amidst concerns about policy uncertainties and a constrained profit and loss statement. Currently trading at $34.71, the stock has fallen nearly 67% over the past year and sits 80% below its 52-week high of $170.47. InvestingPro analysis shows 7 analysts have recently revised their earnings expectations downward, though the stock appears undervalued based on Fair Value calculations.
The revised forecast by Bernstein SocGen Group indicates no change in revenue expectations, as the slowdown in the COVID market and reduced projections for the RSV market had already been considered. The firm projects Moderna’s revenue to be $1.7 billion for the fiscal year 2025, with growth to $3.3 billion by 2028 and $9.1 billion by 2034. The revenue estimates for the first half of 2025 have been updated to align with historical patterns, now expected to contribute just 13% of the total annual revenue. Recent data from InvestingPro reveals a stark 53% revenue decline in the last twelve months, with concerning gross profit margins of -86%.
On the expenditure side, Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A) costs have been adjusted to $1.1 billion, which is in accordance with company guidance and $100 million lower than Bernstein’s previous model. The firm anticipates that Moderna will maintain its focus on efficiency, especially in the face of weaker revenue performance.
Bernstein SocGen Group’s analyst emphasized the various challenges Moderna is facing, including near-term revenue hurdles, potential policy risks, and risks associated with the company’s path to profitability. The new price target of $39 implies a fiscal year 2030 enterprise value to revenue (EV/R) multiple of 1.2 times, which is below many of Moderna’s peers, reflecting these concerns.
In other recent news, Moderna Inc (BMV:MRNA). has received marketing authorization from the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency for its RSV vaccine, mRESVIA, targeting lower respiratory tract disease in adults aged 60 and above. This authorization follows successful Phase 3 trials, and production will occur at Moderna’s facility in Oxfordshire. Additionally, a German court ruled that Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) infringed on Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine patent, requiring them to disclose profits and pay compensation, though the decision is open to appeal. Moderna also announced that a personalized cancer vaccine, in collaboration with Merck (NSE:PROR) & Co., is anticipated for release by 2027, with promising developments in late-stage trials. The company is exploring further applications for the vaccine in various cancer types, including non-small cell lung cancer and renal cancer.
Moderna’s CEO, Stéphane Bancel, and Board Director Paul Sagan recently purchased $6 million worth of company stock, as revealed in SEC filings. The company’s efforts extend to pandemic preparedness, with plans to advance a potential influenza vaccine to Phase 3 trials. Meanwhile, Moderna is actively working on expanding its vaccine offerings, highlighting its commitment to addressing public health challenges. These developments demonstrate Moderna’s ongoing focus on innovation and strategic partnerships in the biopharmaceutical sector.
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