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Tuesday, Bernstein analysts downgraded Verallia SA (VRLA:FP) stock rating from Outperform to Market Perform and reduced the price target to EUR30.00 from EUR35.00. The downgrade follows a series of developments that suggest BWGI’s offer to become the majority shareholder of Verallia is likely to succeed. These developments include a recent reduction in Verallia’s adjusted EBITDA forecast for the fiscal year 2025 and rising trade tensions that may further impact the company’s fundamental performance and share price.
In addition to the downgraded financial outlook, significant shareholder activity has influenced Bernstein’s assessment. Invesco, previously the largest institutional shareholder with a 10.7% stake in Verallia, significantly reduced its position to approximately 0.7% as of April 25, 2025. Moreover, BPI France has expressed its intention to tender about half of its holding, which accounts for 3.8% of Verallia.
The Board of Directors of Verallia has deemed BWGI’s offer as ’fair.’ Bernstein analysts estimate that for BWGI to declare its bid successful, it would require a tender of 30-31% of the free float. Given the prospect of Verallia’s stock liquidity fading, this could deter some investors, further contributing to the likelihood of BWGI’s offer succeeding in acquiring at least 50% of Verallia’s share capital and voting rights.
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