How are energy investors positioned?
On Friday, Bernstein SocGen Group revised its stance on Verbund (VIE:VERB) AG (VER:AV) (OTC: OEZVY), downgrading the energy company’s stock rating to Underperform from the previous Market Perform. Accompanying this downgrade, the firm also reduced its price target on Verbund shares from EUR 73.50 to EUR 55.30. The stock currently trades at $14.65, near its 52-week low, though InvestingPro data shows the company maintains a strong financial health score of 3.38.
The reassessment by Bernstein comes amid concerns over multiple risk factors that the company is currently facing. These include the potential continuation of the windfall tax in Austria, which could impact the company’s financial performance. The analyst also pointed to a lower expected contribution from flexibility products and raised questions about the profitability of Verbund’s renewable energy investments in Spain. Despite these challenges, InvestingPro data reveals the company has maintained dividend payments for 26 consecutive years, with a current yield of 2.69%.
The analyst’s statement highlighted the dry weather conditions at the start of the year as an additional challenge for Verbund. The lack of rainfall could affect the company’s hydropower generation capabilities, which is a significant part of its renewable energy portfolio.
In light of these concerns, Bernstein anticipates that there could be a downward revision of Verbund’s financial guidance for the fiscal year 2025. This expectation is based on the assumption that consensus estimates might also see a reduction as the market adjusts to the company’s potential challenges.
The revision of the rating and price target by Bernstein reflects the firm’s current outlook on Verbund’s stock performance in the face of these identified risks. Investors and market watchers will be keeping a close eye on how these factors play out and their impact on Verbund’s financial results in the coming periods.
In other recent news, Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) has revised its financial outlook for Verbund AG, a prominent Austrian energy company. The bank lowered the price target for Verbund’s shares to €60.00 from €62.00 while maintaining a Sell rating. This adjustment comes as Verbund prepares to announce its first-quarter results on May 14, 2025. Deutsche Bank analysts predict a significant impact from poor hydrological conditions, with a hydro coefficient of 0.83 indicating less-than-ideal water supply for hydroelectric power generation. The bank estimates Verbund’s EBITDA for the quarter will be around €713 million, representing a 19% decrease compared to the previous year, with net profit expected to fall by 22% to €394 million. Furthermore, Deutsche Bank has reduced its earnings per share predictions for the upcoming years, citing windfall taxes as a primary reason. The bank now anticipates an annual €100 million windfall tax at the EBITDA level from 2025 to 2030. Additionally, Deutsche Bank projects a lower EBITDA contribution from pumped storage over the next decade, with a flat profile expected for this segment.
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